TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27?

polymarket

predict

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27?

Volume:

$3,053,645

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27?

- Polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

0.1¢

N/A

$536,819

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

predict

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26?

N/A

N/A

—

$32,314

$2,516,826

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

No

Total markets: 2

Description

This event group compares Bitcoin's price movement across three related markets on Binance BTC/USDT. The predict platform covers June 26 (comparing Jun 25 noon to Jun 26 noon), while polymarket covers June 27 (comparing Jun 26 noon to Jun 27 noon). All markets use identical resolution logic: Up if the earlier candle closes lower, Down if higher, 50-50 if equal.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The event group title references June 27, but the predict platform market resolves based on June 26 price action, creating a one-day temporal mismatch between platforms.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets are fungible. Predict settles on June 26 noon comparison; Polymarket settles on June 27 noon comparison. If you want June 27 exposure, use Polymarket. If you want June 26 exposure, use Predict. The group name misleadingly suggests both cover June 27.

Critical divergence points:

Predict: Compares Binance BTC/USDT close prices at Jun 25 12:00 ET (noon) vs Jun 26 12:00 ET (noon). Resolves Up if Jun 25 < Jun 26, Down if Jun 25 > Jun 26, 50-50 if equal. Title says 'June 26' but group name says 'June 27'.
Polymarket: Compares Binance BTC/USDT close prices at Jun 26 12:00 ET (noon) vs Jun 27 12:00 ET (noon). Resolves Up if Jun 26 < Jun 27, Down if Jun 26 > Jun 27, 50-50 if equal. Title and group name both say 'June 27'.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 26 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 27 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 26 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 27 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

Polymarket and Predict operate with different user bases, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which naturally creates pricing gaps on the same event. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Arbitrage traders often exploit these spreads, but temporary differences persist due to geographic trading patterns, platform-specific incentives, and varying levels of market depth. Monitoring both venues helps you spot mispricing opportunities and understand which platform's participants hold stronger conviction on Bitcoin's directional move.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, regulatory news affecting crypto markets, and large on-chain transactions or exchange flows. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional equities and risk sentiment can amplify moves during market stress or rallies. Technical levels, options expiry dates, and institutional positioning also influence short-term volatility. Traders monitoring this market should watch economic calendars, central bank communications, and on-chain metrics for clues about directional conviction shifts.