TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26?

polymarket

predict

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26?

Volume:

$405,793

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26?

- Polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 26, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

0.1¢

N/A

$339,271

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

predict

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25?

N/A

N/A

—

$165

$66,522

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

No

Total markets: 2

Description

These markets compare Bitcoin's price at two different dates using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close prices at noon ET. The Predict platform market resolves based on June 24 vs June 25 prices, while the Polymarket resolves based on June 25 vs June 26 prices—creating a temporal offset that produces fundamentally different settlement events.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The Predict and Polymarket events measure price movement across different consecutive 24-hour periods (Jun 24-25 vs Jun 25-26). While both use identical Binance BTC/USDT methodology and tie-resolution rules, the settlement values are fundamentally distinct temporal windows.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate directional bets on different dates. Predict resolves on Jun 25 noon ET data; Polymarket resolves on Jun 26 noon ET data. Bitcoin's performance on Jun 25 alone will not determine both outcomes—Jun 26 price action is independent and critical for Polymarket settlement.

Critical divergence points:

Predict: Measures price change from Jun 24 12:00 ET to Jun 25 12:00 ET. UP if Jun 25 close > Jun 24 close. Resolution occurs after Jun 25 12:00 ET candle closes.
Polymarket: Measures price change from Jun 25 12:00 ET to Jun 26 12:00 ET. UP if Jun 26 close > Jun 25 close. Resolution occurs after Jun 26 12:00 ET candle closes.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 25 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 25 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect trader conviction about future price direction, not current spot prices. These odds often diverge from technical analysis or traditional financial models because they incorporate real-money stakes and forward-looking sentiment. Traders on this market are betting on whether Bitcoin will move up or down by the resolution date, so the odds represent aggregated expectations rather than a snapshot of today's price. Comparing these odds to your own analysis can reveal whether the market is pricing in risk you see differently.

Polymarket and Predict operate with different user bases, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which naturally creates pricing gaps. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's order book reflects its own trader activity, so the odds for the same outcome can vary meaningfully between venues. Arbitrage traders often exploit these spreads, but temporary divergences persist due to geographic differences, platform UI preferences, and varying levels of market depth. Checking both platforms helps you find the best odds for your view.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, regulatory news affecting crypto, and large on-chain transactions or whale movements. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets means stock market volatility, inflation reports, and geopolitical events can all shift trader expectations. Technical levels and options expiry dates may also trigger momentum. Real-time news flow and sentiment shifts on social media often drive rapid repricing, so monitoring headlines and on-chain metrics helps you anticipate market moves.