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Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14?
polymarket
predict

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14?

Volume:
$351,264

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14?

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 14, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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Result
polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$312,091
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$39,173
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group compares Bitcoin's price on two specific dates using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closes: June 13, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (baseline) versus June 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (comparison). The market resolves 'Up' if the June 14 close is higher, 'Down' if lower, and 50-50 if prices are identical.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms specify identical resolution criteria, data source, timezone, and edge case handling with no material divergence.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT trading pair, 1-minute candle view at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Core resolution logic:

  • Obtain the Close price from the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle for June 13, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (noon)
  • Obtain the Close price from the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle for June 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (noon)
  • If June 14 close > June 13 close, resolve to Up
  • If June 14 close < June 13 close, resolve to Down
  • If June 14 close = June 13 close exactly, resolve 50-50 split

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Price Equality: If the Close prices for both candles are exactly equal on Binance, the market resolves 50-50, meaning all positions receive equal payout regardless of side.
  • Data Source Exclusivity: Resolution uses only Binance BTC/USDT pair data, not other exchanges or trading pairs. The specific candle view must be 1-minute with Candles selected on the top bar.
  • Timezone Specification: Both timestamp comparisons must use ET (Eastern Time) timezone. June 13 and June 14 at 12:00 PM ET are the fixed reference points.
Timing: Resolution occurs after 12:00 PM ET on June 14, 2026, when the final 1-minute candle close for that timestamp is confirmed on Binance.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds represent what traders are willing to risk on a specific outcome, whereas spot price expectations reflect current market valuations and technical analysis. This market's odds can diverge from traditional price forecasts because they incorporate longer-term sentiment, event risk, and macroeconomic factors traders believe will influence Bitcoin by the resolution date. Comparing the two reveals whether prediction traders are pricing in moves that spot markets haven't fully reflected yet.

Polymarket and Predict operate with different user bases, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can create temporary price gaps on the same outcome. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Arbitrage traders often exploit these spreads, but differences may persist if one platform attracts more bullish or bearish participants, or if trading volume is concentrated unevenly. Monitoring both platforms helps you identify the most competitive odds and understand where informed traders are positioning themselves.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, regulatory developments affecting cryptocurrencies, and significant Bitcoin whale transactions or exchange flows. Technical breakouts above or below key support and resistance levels often trigger sharp repricing. Geopolitical events, corporate adoption news, and shifts in traditional market sentiment can also shift trader positioning rapidly. Monitoring on-chain metrics, funding rates, and news flow helps anticipate moves before they're fully priced in.