TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 7?

predict

polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 7?

Volume:

$527,826

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 7?

- Polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 7? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 7, 2026

Closed: Jul 7, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 7?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

0.1¢

N/A

$470,789

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

predict

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 6?

N/A

N/A

—

$2,165

$57,037

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

No

Total markets: 2

Description

This event group compares Bitcoin price movement across three related markets on Binance BTC/USDT. The Predict platform hosts a market about July 6 price action, while Polymarket hosts a market about July 7 price action. Both use identical resolution logic comparing noon ET closing prices between consecutive days.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Temporal divergence: Predict platform resolves on July 6 price action (comparing Jul 5 noon to Jul 6 noon), while Polymarket resolves on July 7 price action (comparing Jul 6 noon to Jul 7 noon). The event group title references July 7, creating ambiguity about which market aligns with the stated group intent.Hero tip: These markets measure different 24-hour windows. If your thesis is about July 7 specifically, use Polymarket. If you want July 6 movement, use Predict. They will not necessarily resolve the same way because they compare different price pairs across different dates. Treat as two distinct markets with a one-day offset.

Critical divergence points:

Predict: Measures day-over-day price change from Jul 5 12:00 ET to Jul 6 12:00 ET. Resolves 'Up' if Jul 5 close is lower than Jul 6 close; 'Down' if Jul 5 close is higher; 50-50 if equal. Source: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles.
Polymarket: Measures day-over-day price change from Jul 6 12:00 ET to Jul 7 12:00 ET. Resolves 'Up' if Jul 6 close is lower than Jul 7 close; 'Down' if Jul 6 close is higher; 50-50 if equal. Source: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 6 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 6 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to risk on a specific outcome, which often diverges from spot price momentum alone. While technical analysis or recent volatility might suggest one direction, this market prices in broader macro factors, regulatory news, and sentiment shifts that spot traders may underweight. The odds here represent genuine financial commitment rather than casual sentiment, making them a useful cross-check against traditional price-action signals.

Polymarket and Predict attract different trader bases, liquidity profiles, and fee structures, leading to natural price divergence. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. One platform may see heavier volume from retail participants, while the other draws institutional flow; regulatory geography and user interface design also shape who trades where. These differences create arbitrage opportunities and reveal which communities hold stronger conviction on the outcome.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, geopolitical developments, and large on-chain transactions or exchange flows. Regulatory headlines—especially from the SEC or international bodies—can shift sentiment sharply. Technical breakouts, options expiry clustering, and volatility spikes in traditional markets often ripple into crypto. Monitoring news, on-chain metrics, and implied volatility surfaces will help you anticipate moves before this market reprices.