TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 4?
polymarket
predict

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 4?

Volume:
$339,391

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 4?

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 4, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 4?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$284,473
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 4?

View
N/A
N/A
—
$6,217
$54,918
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price on Binance (BTC/USDT pair) moves up or down when comparing the closing price at noon ET on July 3, 2026 to the closing price at noon ET on July 4, 2026. Resolution is based on 1-minute candle data from Binance's official trading interface.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms specify identical comparison logic, timeframes, timezone (ET), data source (Binance), and trading pair (BTC/USDT), with no material divergence in resolution criteria.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close prices at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Core resolution logic:

  • Obtain the close price from the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle for July 3, 2026 at 12:00 ET (noon)
  • Obtain the close price from the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle for July 4, 2026 at 12:00 ET (noon)
  • If July 4 close price is higher than July 3 close price, resolve to Up
  • If July 4 close price is lower than July 3 close price, resolve to Down
  • If both close prices are exactly equal, resolve 50-50 split

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Price Equality: If the close prices for both candles are exactly equal, the market resolves 50-50, meaning all positions receive equal payout regardless of their chosen outcome.
  • Data Source Specificity: Resolution uses only Binance BTC/USDT pair data; prices from other exchanges or trading pairs (e.g., BTC/USD on other platforms) are explicitly excluded.
  • Candle Specification: Resolution requires 1-minute candle data with the Candles view selected on Binance's interface; other timeframes or chart types are not valid sources.
  • Timezone Precision: Both comparison points must use Eastern Time (ET) timezone at exactly 12:00 (noon); no other timezone conversions are permitted.
Timing: Resolution occurs after 12:00 ET on July 4, 2026, when the final close price for the July 4 noon candle is available on Binance.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

The Bitcoin price movement market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Predict, offering a unified view of how the crypto community expects BTC to move on July 4. Traders on both platforms are pricing their conviction that Bitcoin will either rise or fall by the market close on that date. This cross-platform tracking reveals consensus odds and total engagement, helping participants gauge whether bullish or bearish sentiment is currently dominant. The dashboard surfaces real-time probability shifts as new trades flow in, giving you a live snapshot of collective market expectations for that specific day.

Prediction market odds reflect trader beliefs about future price direction, which often diverge from current spot prices. While spot markets price what Bitcoin is worth right now, this market prices what traders expect it to be worth by July 4. Prediction odds can run ahead of or lag behind spot sentiment depending on upcoming catalysts, macro conditions, and trader positioning. Many participants use these odds as a contrarian signal or confirmation tool alongside traditional technical and fundamental analysis. The gap between implied probability and your own conviction can reveal profitable trading opportunities.

Polymarket and Predict attract different trader bases, liquidity profiles, and fee structures, which naturally creates pricing spreads. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. One platform may see larger whale positions or retail flow that temporarily pushes odds higher or lower than the other. Arbitrage traders often exploit these gaps, but friction costs and settlement risk can prevent prices from converging instantly. Monitoring both venues helps you identify mispriced outcomes and understand where smart money is actually positioning ahead of July 4.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation data, geopolitical developments, and large on-chain transactions that signal institutional positioning. Bitcoin's correlation to traditional equities and bond yields often tightens around macro events, so stock market volatility or treasury yield shifts can drive sharp repricing. Regulatory news, exchange inflows or outflows, and sentiment swings on social media can also trigger rapid odds movement. Traders typically watch the week leading up to July 4 for any surprise headlines that might shift the balance between bullish and bearish conviction.