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Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1?
polymarket
predict

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1?

Volume:
$228,931

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1?

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$168,310
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1?

View
N/A
N/A
—
$2,027
$60,620
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price on July 1, 2026 at noon ET will be higher or lower than its price on June 30, 2026 at noon ET, using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close prices as the settlement source. The market resolves to 'Up' if July 1 closes higher, 'Down' if lower, and 50-50 if prices are exactly equal.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution criteria referencing the same Binance data source, timeframes, and outcome definitions with no material divergence.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close prices accessible at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Core resolution logic:

  • Obtain the close price from the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle for June 30, 2026 at 12:00 ET (noon)
  • Obtain the close price from the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle for July 1, 2026 at 12:00 ET (noon)
  • If July 1 close price is higher than June 30 close price, resolve to 'Up'
  • If July 1 close price is lower than June 30 close price, resolve to 'Down'
  • If both close prices are exactly equal, resolve 50-50 split between 'Up' and 'Down'

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Price Equality: If the close prices for both candles are exactly identical, the market resolves as a 50-50 split, with all positions receiving equal payout.
  • Data Availability: Resolution depends on Binance 1-minute candle data being available and accessible at the specified URL with 1m and Candles view selected. If Binance data is unavailable or corrupted, resolution may be disputed.
  • Timezone Precision: Both reference times must be interpreted as Eastern Time (ET) at exactly 12:00 noon on the specified dates. Daylight saving time rules applicable to ET in 2026 must be observed.
  • Exchange-Specific Pricing: Resolution is explicitly limited to Binance BTC/USDT pricing only. Prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are not considered.
Timing: Resolution occurs after 12:00 ET on July 1, 2026, once the 1-minute candle close price for that timestamp is finalized on Binance.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect trader conviction about future price direction, which often diverges from current spot prices or technical analysis. While spot markets react to immediate supply and demand, this market prices in forward-looking sentiment and event risk over a defined timeframe. Traders here are essentially betting on realized volatility and directional bias, not current valuation. If odds heavily favor one direction, it suggests the crowd expects momentum or a catalyst to push price movement. Comparing these odds to your own analysis of on-chain metrics, macroeconomic signals, or technical levels can reveal whether the market is pricing in information you already know or has discovered something new.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Predict attract different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, all of which influence how prices evolve. Polymarket typically sees higher volume and faster price discovery, while Predict may have a more niche or regional user base. Arbitrage opportunities arise when one platform prices the outcome differently; savvy traders exploit these gaps until prices converge. Platform-specific factors—such as withdrawal delays, regulatory uncertainty in certain jurisdictions, or UI design—can also cause temporary pricing friction. Monitoring both venues helps you identify mispricings and understand which platform's odds are most reliable as a signal of true market consensus.