TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5PM ET

Volume:
$1,446,823

$67,000 or above

 - Kalshi

$67,000 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Mar 7, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$67,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$201,657
N/A
N/A
$101,355
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$55,663
N/A
N/A
$39,577
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$37,830
N/A
N/A
$30,408
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,012
N/A
N/A
$11,527
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,561
N/A
N/A
$9,275
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,020
N/A
N/A
$2,910
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,089
N/A
N/A
$4,079
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,533
N/A
N/A
$3,433
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,356
N/A
N/A
$2,186
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,523
N/A
N/A
$1,448
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,440
N/A
N/A
$1,196
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$351
N/A
N/A
$276
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$284
N/A
N/A
$208
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$150
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67,500 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$465,548
N/A
N/A
$141,649
Settled
No
kalshi

$68,000 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$254,182
N/A
N/A
$96,130
Settled
No
kalshi

$68,500 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$125,439
N/A
N/A
$55,486
Settled
No
kalshi

$69,000 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$77,101
N/A
N/A
$56,074
Settled
No
kalshi

$69,500 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$67,824
N/A
N/A
$57,459
Settled
No
kalshi

$70,000 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$65,052
N/A
N/A
$59,437
Settled
No
kalshi

$70,500 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,943
N/A
N/A
$24,854
Settled
No
kalshi

$71,000 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,227
N/A
N/A
$6,888
Settled
No
kalshi

$73,500 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,131
N/A
N/A
$4,001
Settled
No
kalshi

$71,500 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,738
N/A
N/A
$2,638
Settled
No
kalshi

$80,000 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,820
N/A
N/A
$1,820
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down at a specific moment on March 7, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average. Both platforms are attempting to measure the same directional outcome but employ fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two platforms measure the same directional event using incompatible price sources (Binance BTC/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks BRTI) and different time windows (1-hour candle open/close vs. 60-second average). Kalshi's 40 separate threshold-based markets do not map to Polymarket's binary UP/DOWN outcome.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Polymarket resolves based on Binance candle structure; Kalshi resolves based on BRTI index thresholds. Price divergence between the two sources is possible. If trading Kalshi, identify the specific threshold contract you hold—each of the 40 conditions is a separate market with its own YES/NO outcome.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary UP/DOWN based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle. UP if close >= open; DOWN otherwise. Resolution source: Binance official chart data for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 7, 2026.
  • Kalshi: 40 separate threshold-based YES/NO markets using CF Benchmarks BRTI 60-second average before 5 PM EST. Each contract resolves YES if BRTI average exceeds its specific threshold (ranging 60,499.99 to 79,999.99). No explicit NO condition or lower bound defined; implicit NO if average does not exceed threshold.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.