TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5PM ET
Volume:
$1,446,823
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down at a specific moment on March 7, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average. Both platforms are attempting to measure the same directional outcome but employ fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two platforms measure the same directional event using incompatible price sources (Binance BTC/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks BRTI) and different time windows (1-hour candle open/close vs. 60-second average). Kalshi's 40 separate threshold-based markets do not map to Polymarket's binary UP/DOWN outcome.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Polymarket resolves based on Binance candle structure; Kalshi resolves based on BRTI index thresholds. Price divergence between the two sources is possible. If trading Kalshi, identify the specific threshold contract you hold—each of the 40 conditions is a separate market with its own YES/NO outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary UP/DOWN based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle. UP if close >= open; DOWN otherwise. Resolution source: Binance official chart data for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 7, 2026.
- Kalshi: 40 separate threshold-based YES/NO markets using CF Benchmarks BRTI 60-second average before 5 PM EST. Each contract resolves YES if BRTI average exceeds its specific threshold (ranging 60,499.99 to 79,999.99). No explicit NO condition or lower bound defined; implicit NO if average does not exceed threshold.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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