TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET

Volume:
$2,387,081

$69,750 or above

 - Kalshi

$69,750 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 21, 2026

Closed: Mar 20, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$69,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$361,193
N/A
N/A
$87,541
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$145,095
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$93,559
N/A
N/A
$42,599
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$58,885
N/A
N/A
$31,002
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$29,621
N/A
N/A
$15,198
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$21,334
N/A
N/A
$12,861
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$20,061
N/A
N/A
$9,664
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$19,908
N/A
N/A
$6,396
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$19,202
N/A
N/A
$10,920
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,966
N/A
N/A
$13,995
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,028
N/A
N/A
$13,307
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14,701
N/A
N/A
$9,439
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,612
N/A
N/A
$7,909
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,194
N/A
N/A
$8,514
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,981
N/A
N/A
$7,635
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,193
N/A
N/A
$5,493
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,923
N/A
N/A
$5,669
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,326
N/A
N/A
$4,179
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,922
N/A
N/A
$2,735
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,792
N/A
N/A
$2,664
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,100
N/A
N/A
$2,079
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,053
N/A
N/A
$1,453
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$924
N/A
N/A
$782
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70,250 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$410,354
N/A
N/A
$134,408
Settled
No
kalshi

$70,750 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$213,370
N/A
N/A
$72,075
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, timing mechanisms, and settlement values. Polymarket resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on 40 distinct CF Benchmarks BRTI price thresholds, creating incompatible outcome spaces and potential for conflicting resolutions.Hero tip: These markets will likely resolve differently. On Polymarket, you are betting on directional price movement (up vs down) within a single 1-hour candle. On Kalshi, you are betting on whether the 60-second average of BRTI crosses one of 40 specific price levels—a much finer-grained and multi-outcome structure. Do not assume your Polymarket position hedges your Kalshi position; they may both resolve YES or both resolve NO independently.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open vs close price comparison. Market resolves YES (Up) if close >= open, NO (Down) otherwise. Single binary outcome. Source: 'the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title' from Binance.
  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT. Contains 40 separate YES/NO conditions, each tied to a distinct price threshold ranging from 59249.99 to 83749.99. All 40 conditions resolve YES if the BRTI average exceeds their respective threshold. Source: 'the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT' at multiple price levels.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.