TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, timing mechanisms, and settlement values. Polymarket resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on 40 distinct CF Benchmarks BRTI price thresholds, creating incompatible outcome spaces and potential for conflicting resolutions.Hero Tip:
These markets will likely resolve differently. On Polymarket, you are betting on directional price movement (up vs down) within a single 1-hour candle. On Kalshi, you are betting on whether the 60-second average of BRTI crosses one of 40 specific price levels—a much finer-grained and multi-outcome structure. Do not assume your Polymarket position hedges your Kalshi position; they may both resolve YES or both resolve NO independently.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open vs close price comparison. Market resolves YES (Up) if close >= open, NO (Down) otherwise. Single binary outcome. Source: 'the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title' from Binance.
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT. Contains 40 separate YES/NO conditions, each tied to a distinct price threshold ranging from 59249.99 to 83749.99. All 40 conditions resolve YES if the BRTI average exceeds their respective threshold. Source: 'the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT' at multiple price levels.
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