TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5PM ET

Volume:
$372,076

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 3, 2026

Closed: Mar 2, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$262,407
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69,250 to 69,749.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,104
N/A
N/A
$5,395
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68,750 to 69,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,994
N/A
N/A
$8,956
Settled
No
kalshi

$69,750 to 70,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,350
N/A
N/A
$5,543
Settled
No
kalshi

$67,750 to 68,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,230
N/A
N/A
$6,515
Settled
No
kalshi

$68,250 to 68,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,178
N/A
N/A
$2,938
Settled
No
kalshi

$70,750 to 71,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,740
N/A
N/A
$2,933
Settled
No
kalshi

$66,250 to 66,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,241
N/A
N/A
$2,814
Settled
No
kalshi

$65,250 to 65,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,930
N/A
N/A
$2,752
Settled
No
kalshi

$65,750 to 66,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,672
N/A
N/A
$1,819
Settled
No
kalshi

$67,250 to 67,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,658
N/A
N/A
$2,559
Settled
No
kalshi

$56,749.99 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,514
N/A
N/A
$3,343
Settled
No
kalshi

$63,750 to 64,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,302
N/A
N/A
$3,136
Settled
No
kalshi

$70,250 to 70,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,115
N/A
N/A
$1,425
Settled
No
kalshi

$66,750 to 67,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,062
N/A
N/A
$2,523
Settled
No
kalshi

$64,750 to 65,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,397
N/A
N/A
$2,050
Settled
No
kalshi

$63,250 to 63,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,930
N/A
N/A
$1,612
Settled
No
kalshi

$71,250 to 71,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,796
N/A
N/A
$421
Settled
No
kalshi

$71,750 to 72,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,107
N/A
N/A
$463
Settled
No
kalshi

$64,250 to 64,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$859
N/A
N/A
$769
Settled
No
kalshi

$72,250 to 72,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$670
N/A
N/A
$402
Settled
No
kalshi

$73,750 to 74,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$534
N/A
N/A
$534
Settled
No
kalshi

$56,750 to 57,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$372
N/A
N/A
$362
Settled
No
kalshi

$59,250 to 59,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$370
N/A
N/A
$360
Settled
No
kalshi

$62,750 to 63,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$355
N/A
N/A
$321
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down at 5 PM ET on March 2, 2026. Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average. Both markets resolve based on price data at the same moment in time but from fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two independent price sources and measurement methodologies create settlement value mismatch risk. Polymarket uses Binance spot candle data; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks BRTI index with 40 overlapping price bands that collectively cover nearly all realistic outcomes.Hero tip: Polymarket requires directional conviction on Binance BTC/USDT movement. Kalshi's 40-band structure means it resolves Yes across ~$19,000 of price range, making it a near-certainty Yes market unless Bitcoin trades outside $56,750–$75,750 range. Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Monitor both data sources independently.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional resolution based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close >= open, Down otherwise. Single, definitive data source (Binance). Quote: 'The close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves Yes if 60-second average of CF Benchmarks BRTI falls within any of 40 predefined $500 price bands ($56,750–$75,750+). Effectively covers ~$19,000 of price range as Yes outcomes. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EST is between [band] at 5 PM EST on Mar 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.