TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5PM ET
Volume:
$372,076
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down at 5 PM ET on March 2, 2026. Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average. Both markets resolve based on price data at the same moment in time but from fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two independent price sources and measurement methodologies create settlement value mismatch risk. Polymarket uses Binance spot candle data; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks BRTI index with 40 overlapping price bands that collectively cover nearly all realistic outcomes.Hero Tip:
Polymarket requires directional conviction on Binance BTC/USDT movement. Kalshi's 40-band structure means it resolves Yes across ~$19,000 of price range, making it a near-certainty Yes market unless Bitcoin trades outside $56,750–$75,750 range. Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Monitor both data sources independently.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional resolution based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close >= open, Down otherwise. Single, definitive data source (Binance). Quote: 'The close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title.'
- Kalshi: Resolves Yes if 60-second average of CF Benchmarks BRTI falls within any of 40 predefined $500 price bands ($56,750–$75,750+). Effectively covers ~$19,000 of price range as Yes outcomes. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EST is between [band] at 5 PM EST on Mar 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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