TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2PM ET
polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2PM ET

Volume:
$45,035

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2PM ET

 - Polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 4, 2026

Closed: Jun 4, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$45,035
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect trader consensus on Bitcoin's direction by June 4, 2PM ET, while spot price expectations derive from technical analysis, analyst forecasts, and broader market sentiment. Prediction markets often incorporate forward-looking information and real-money incentives, making them a distinct signal from traditional price targets. Comparing Polymarket odds to analyst price predictions and on-chain metrics can reveal whether traders are pricing in different catalysts or risk factors than the broader analyst community expects.

On Polymarket, Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2PM ET is priced as a binary outcome contract, with traders buying and selling shares representing "Up" or "Down" at prices between 0 and 1 (or 0–100 cents). On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders. Liquidity, order flow, and recent price action all influence the quoted odds. As new information emerges—such as macroeconomic data, regulatory news, or Bitcoin network developments—traders adjust positions, moving the price and updating the implied probability of each outcome.

Several catalysts could shift Bitcoin's price direction before June 4, 2PM ET. Macroeconomic announcements—such as Federal Reserve policy decisions, inflation data, or employment reports—often drive broad risk-asset sentiment. Regulatory developments, including statements from the SEC or international authorities, can spark volatility. Bitcoin-specific events, such as major exchange flows, mining difficulty adjustments, or large on-chain transactions, may also influence price. Technical levels, options expiration dates, and shifts in institutional positioning can amplify or dampen directional moves. Monitor these factors alongside prediction market odds for a complete picture.