TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will Bitcoin be up or down on June 30 at 5PM ET?

Volume:
$120,706

$58,500 to 58,749.99

 - Kalshi

$58,500 to 58,749.99 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$58,500 to 58,749.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25,639
N/A
N/A
$6,233
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,783
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,250 to 58,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,832
N/A
N/A
$4,487
Settled
No
kalshi

$58,750 to 58,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,908
N/A
N/A
$4,765
Settled
No
kalshi

$60,250 to 60,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,123
N/A
N/A
$2,828
Settled
No
kalshi

$59,000 to 59,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,749
N/A
N/A
$3,941
Settled
No
kalshi

$60,000 to 60,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,655
N/A
N/A
$4,194
Settled
No
kalshi

$59,250 to 59,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,037
N/A
N/A
$1,705
Settled
No
kalshi

$58,000 to 58,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,333
N/A
N/A
$2,848
Settled
No
kalshi

$57,500 to 57,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,933
N/A
N/A
$1,898
Settled
No
kalshi

$59,500 to 59,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,338
N/A
N/A
$1,207
Settled
No
kalshi

$57,750 to 57,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,099
N/A
N/A
$768
Settled
No
kalshi

$57,250 to 57,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$865
N/A
N/A
$841
Settled
No
kalshi

$59,750 to 59,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$702
N/A
N/A
$700
Settled
No
kalshi

$56,750 to 56,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$698
N/A
N/A
$340
Settled
No
kalshi

$61,750 to 61,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$476
N/A
N/A
$476
Settled
No
kalshi

$61,250 to 61,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
$468
Settled
No
kalshi

$60,500 to 60,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$398
N/A
N/A
$398
Settled
No
kalshi

$61,500 to 61,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$187
N/A
N/A
$187
Settled
No
kalshi

$60,750 to 60,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$137
N/A
N/A
$136
Settled
No
kalshi

$54,500 to 54,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

$49,749.99 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31
N/A
N/A
$31
Settled
No
kalshi

$69,250 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31
N/A
N/A
$31
Settled
No
kalshi

$56,250 to 56,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
No
kalshi

$56,500 to 56,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29
N/A
N/A
$29
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 81

Description

This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down at a specific moment (June 30, 2026, 5 PM ET). Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average. The markets differ fundamentally in data source, measurement methodology, and resolution logic.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct price indices (Binance BTC/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks BRTI), different measurement windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and incompatible resolution logic (binary up/down vs. 80-band yes/no lottery) create material settlement risk.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with separate data sources. Polymarket is a clean directional bet; Kalshi is a granular price-band prediction. Basis risk exists because Binance spot and CF Benchmarks BRTI can diverge. Verify both indices independently at resolution time. If trading both, do not assume arbitrage or perfect correlation.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves Up if BTC/USDT close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on June 30, 2026. Data source: Binance BTC/USDT pair, 1H candle. Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 80-band price lottery. Resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT on June 30, 2026 falls within any of 80 predefined price bands (e.g., below 49750, 50000-50249.99, 50250-50499.99, ..., above 69249.99). Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is [band] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 30, 2026. Each outcome represents a distinct price range, and exactly one outcome resolves to Yes based on where the average price falls. The official price source is CF Benchmarks' RTI rather than individual exchange prices.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect trader conviction about directional movement, not current spot price. While spot markets price Bitcoin's value in real time, this market isolates directional bias—whether participants expect upward or downward pressure by the settlement date. Odds here often diverge from spot momentum because traders factor in volatility, macro events, and longer-term conviction. A 50/50 split does not mean spot price is neutral; it means equal confidence in either direction. Comparing these odds to your own macro view or technical outlook can reveal where crowd sentiment may be mispriced.