TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7PM ET
polymarket
predict

Will Bitcoin be up at June 27, 7PM ET?

Volume:
$18,837

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7PM ET

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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Result
polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,178
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7PM ET

View
N/A
N/A
—
$3,230
$2,659
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price on the BTC/USDT pair at Binance closes higher than or equal to its opening price during the 1-hour candle beginning at 7PM ET on June 27. The market resolves to 'Up' if close >= open, otherwise 'Down', using Binance's official 1H candle data as the single authoritative source.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution criteria tied to the same Binance data source with no divergence in logic, timing, or settlement value.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT pair official 1H candle data (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution occurs after the 1-hour candle beginning at 7PM ET on June 27 closes and Binance finalizes the candle data
  • Market resolves to 'Up' if close price >= open price for that specific 1H candle
  • Market resolves to 'Down' if close price < open price for that specific 1H candle
  • Only the BTC/USDT pair on Binance is used; no alternative exchanges or trading pairs are considered

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact tie (close equals open): Market resolves to 'Up' per the >= condition in the resolution criteria
  • Binance data unavailability: Resolution criteria do not specify a fallback source; market may face cancellation or dispute if Binance data is unavailable or corrupted at settlement time
  • Candle finalization timing: Resolution uses data 'once the data for that candle is finalized' per both platforms; exact finalization time should be confirmed with Binance (typically 1 minute after candle close)
Timing: Resolution occurs after 8PM ET on June 27, 2024, once the 1-hour candle that began at 7PM ET closes and Binance finalizes the candle data on the 1H chartOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

The Bitcoin price direction market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Predict, capturing real-time consensus on whether Bitcoin's price will move up or down by the June 27 deadline. This dashboard surfaces the collective forecast from both platforms, allowing you to compare how each community is pricing the same directional outcome. Cross-platform tracking reveals whether consensus is tight or divergent, giving you a fuller picture of market sentiment than any single venue alone.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Liquidity depth, user base composition, and fee structures vary between venues, causing identical events to trade at different odds. Polymarket and Predict may also attract traders with different time horizons or risk appetites. Arbitrage opportunities emerge when one platform prices Bitcoin's direction significantly higher or lower than the other, though transaction costs and withdrawal delays often prevent perfect convergence. Monitoring both helps you spot mispricing and understand where smart money is positioning.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, and regulatory developments affecting crypto markets. Bitcoin-specific events—such as large exchange flows, mining difficulty adjustments, or institutional adoption news—can shift directional sentiment rapidly. Geopolitical shocks, equity market volatility, and shifts in risk appetite also influence Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. Watch on-chain metrics and funding rates for early signals of momentum changes before the June 27 deadline.