TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET
polymarket
predict

Will Bitcoin be up on June 27, 2PM ET?

Volume:
$103,234

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$98,980
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET

View
N/A
N/A
—
$2,375
$4,254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price on Binance (BTC/USDT pair) closes higher than or equal to its opening price during the 1-hour candle beginning at 2PM ET on June 27. Resolution depends on the finalized close and open prices from Binance's 1H candlestick chart for that specific time window.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution criteria referencing the same Binance data source, candle timeframe, and comparison logic with no divergence in settlement rules.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT pair, 1-hour candlestick chart (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)

Core resolution logic:

  • Identify the 1-hour candle that begins at 2PM ET on June 27, 2024 on Binance BTC/USDT
  • Extract the open price (O) and close price (C) from the finalized candle data
  • Resolve to Up if close price >= open price
  • Resolve to Down if close price < open price
  • Resolution uses only Binance data; no alternative exchanges or pairs are considered

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Candle Finalization Timing: Resolution occurs after the 1-hour candle closes and Binance data is finalized, typically within seconds of 3PM ET on June 27
  • Equal Prices (Tie): If open price equals close price, the market resolves to Up per the >= condition in the resolution criteria
  • Data Unavailability: If Binance BTC/USDT 1H candle data is unavailable or corrupted, resolution may be delayed or cancelled pending data recovery
Timing: Resolution occurs after the 1-hour candle beginning at 2PM ET on June 27, 2024 closes and Binance finalizes the candlestick data, typically by 3PM ET on June 27, 2024Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

The Bitcoin price movement market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Predict, offering a unified view of how prediction markets are pricing Bitcoin's direction on June 27 at 2PM ET. Each platform's participants independently assess whether Bitcoin will move up or down, and their collective odds reveal real-time consensus. By tracking this market across multiple venues, you can compare how different trader bases and liquidity pools converge on the same event, spotting divergences that may signal arbitrage opportunities or shifting sentiment in the crypto prediction space.

Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to risk on a specific outcome, not just current spot price levels. This market prices Bitcoin's directional move as a binary event, meaning odds embed expectations about volatility, news flow, and macro catalysts between now and the resolution time. Spot price alone doesn't capture these forward-looking probabilities. Comparing this market's odds to your own conviction about Bitcoin's near-term direction can reveal whether the crowd is overpricing or underpricing the move you anticipate.

Polymarket and Predict operate with different user bases, fee structures, and liquidity depths, which naturally creates pricing gaps on the same event. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Arbitrageurs typically exploit these spreads, but temporary misalignments persist due to platform-specific trading patterns, withdrawal delays, or regional user preferences. Monitoring both venues helps you identify which platform is pricing this market more efficiently and where smart money may be flowing as the resolution date approaches.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, regulatory news affecting crypto, and Bitcoin-specific developments like network upgrades or large exchange flows. Geopolitical events and traditional market volatility can also shift risk appetite and flow into or out of Bitcoin. Watch for on-chain metrics, whale wallet activity, and sentiment shifts on social media, as these often precede price moves. Any unexpected news in the 24 hours before resolution can trigger sharp repricing, so stay alert to breaking developments in both crypto and broader markets.