TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will Bitcoin be up at June 26, 5PM ET?

Volume:
$7,316,056

$59,500 or above

 - Kalshi

$59,500 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 26, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$59,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,242,768
N/A
N/A
$297,557
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$584,323
N/A
N/A
$194,668
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$366,426
N/A
N/A
$92,961
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$301,277
N/A
N/A
$64,241
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$210,666
N/A
N/A
$99,207
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$171,557
N/A
N/A
$62,340
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$63,101
N/A
N/A
$32,364
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$57,519
N/A
N/A
$31,845
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$24,477
N/A
N/A
$18,145
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$23,036
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$18,868
N/A
N/A
$15,017
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,034
N/A
N/A
$13,852
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$50,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,611
N/A
N/A
$7,801
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,620
N/A
N/A
$6,760
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,486
N/A
N/A
$3,725
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$52,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,084
N/A
N/A
$3,077
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,805
N/A
N/A
$2,375
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$51,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,559
N/A
N/A
$2,130
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$50,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$724
N/A
N/A
$724
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$51,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$681
N/A
N/A
$681
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$52,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$492
N/A
N/A
$492
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,000 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$917,434
N/A
N/A
$282,544
Settled
No
kalshi

$60,500 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$528,905
N/A
N/A
$116,656
Settled
No
kalshi

$61,000 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$444,940
N/A
N/A
$126,291
Settled
No
kalshi

$61,500 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$303,720
N/A
N/A
$89,599
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 51

Intro

This market tracks whether Bitcoin's price will be above $54,499.99 at 5 PM EDT on June 26, 2026, based on a sixty-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus shows 99.0% probability for Bitcoin trading above that threshold at the specified time. The resolution will be determined by CF Benchmarks' official BRTI data at the 5 PM EDT measurement window on June 26, 2026. Watch the final hour before the 5 PM ET close for any sharp volatility that could shift Bitcoin's positioning relative to the $54,499.99 level.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi employ different price indices (Binance BTC/USDT candle vs. CF Benchmarks BRTI) and different measurement logic (candle open/close comparison vs. 60-second average threshold). This creates a material risk that both markets could resolve in opposite directions despite both claiming to measure Bitcoin price direction at 5 PM ET on June 26, 2026.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets are interchangeable. Polymarket is a single binary (UP if close >= open, else DOWN). Kalshi offers 46 separate threshold markets, each with its own YES/NO outcome. Binance spot prices and CF Benchmarks indices can diverge significantly. If you trade both platforms, treat them as separate bets and monitor the actual data sources (Binance API for Polymarket, CF Benchmarks BRTI feed for Kalshi) in real time.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary candle-based resolution. Compares the close price to the open price of the BTC/USDT 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on June 26, 2026. Resolves UP if close >= open, DOWN otherwise. Data source: Binance BTC/USDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 46 separate threshold-based markets. Each resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific price threshold (ranging from 49,999.99 to 74,499.99). No explicit DOWN outcome; absence of YES implies NO. Data source: CF Benchmarks BRTI. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) calculated immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 26, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price threshold, ranging from $50,000 to $74,500. A market resolves to Yes if the 60-second average exceeds the threshold specified for that market (e.g., a market for "$50,000 or above" resolves Yes if the average is above $49,999.99). The official price source is CF Benchmarks' BRTI, not alternative sources like Google or Coinbase. At the resolution time, 60 individual BRTI price points are collected over one minute, and their simple average determines the final outcome.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect trader beliefs about future price direction, not current spot prices. While spot markets react to immediate supply and demand, this market prices the probability of a specific directional move over a defined window. Traders incorporate technical analysis, macro sentiment, on-chain data, and event risk into their bids. A gap between prediction odds and spot price momentum often signals where the crowd expects mean reversion or acceleration, making these markets useful for gauging conviction independent of intraday volatility.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates distinct order books, fee structures, and user bases, which naturally creates pricing variations. Polymarket and Kalshi may attract traders with different risk appetites, time horizons, and information sets. Regulatory frameworks, liquidity depth, and settlement mechanics also differ between venues. These gaps create arbitrage opportunities and reflect how fragmented prediction markets remain; a trader's confidence in one platform's outcome may not match another's, especially if one venue has tighter liquidity or higher trading costs.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, and regulatory news affecting cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin-specific events such as network upgrades, large exchange movements, or institutional adoption news can shift trader positioning significantly. Geopolitical developments, inflation reports, and traditional market volatility often ripple into crypto sentiment. Technical levels and options expiry dates may also trigger momentum shifts. Monitoring on-chain metrics, funding rates, and social sentiment alongside traditional financial news helps anticipate directional moves before they're priced in.