TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5AM ET
polymarket

Will Bitcoin be up or down on July 11 at 5AM ET?

Volume:
$23,790

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5AM ET

 - Polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5AM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 6:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,790
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

The Bitcoin price movement market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and historical price data for the Bitcoin price movement market, allowing traders to monitor how the community is pricing the direction of Bitcoin's value at a specific moment. The interface displays current implied probabilities, 24-hour volume activity, and order book depth, giving participants a transparent view of market sentiment. This live data helps traders assess consensus expectations and identify trading opportunities as new information emerges.

Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader conviction about Bitcoin's direction and often diverge from spot price momentum alone. While spot prices react to immediate supply and demand, this market incorporates forward-looking expectations, news sentiment, and macroeconomic factors that traders believe will influence Bitcoin by the resolution window. Comparing implied probabilities here to analyst forecasts and on-chain metrics can reveal whether the market is pricing in consensus or contrarian views on near-term Bitcoin movement.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker mechanism where buying shares of either outcome shifts the price dynamically based on liquidity and cumulative volume. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on the outcome, and the current price reflects the marginal probability the market assigns to Bitcoin moving in the predicted direction. Traders profit by buying underpriced outcomes or selling overpriced ones as new information arrives.

This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once Bitcoin's price movement is verifiable from credible public sources. The resolution hinges on whether Bitcoin's price has moved in the direction specified by the market conditions at that exact moment. Traders holding winning shares receive their payout once the event is settled and verified.

Major catalysts for this market include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, regulatory news affecting cryptocurrency, and significant Bitcoin whale transactions or exchange flows. Technical levels and support or resistance breaches can also trigger rapid repricing. Geopolitical events, corporate adoption news, and shifts in traditional market risk sentiment often correlate with Bitcoin volatility and will likely influence trader positioning as the resolution date approaches.