TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5PM ET
Volume:
$190,583
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down on April 6, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) averaged over 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT, while Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close prices. Both markets resolve based on price direction at the specified timestamp, but they reference different data sources and measurement methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic contains a logical contradiction: all 80 conditions resolve to Yes across the entire price range (below 56750 to above 76249.99), leaving no outcome path for No resolution. Polymarket uses a separate, independent data source (Binance BTC/USDT) and measurement method (1-hour candle open/close comparison). The two markets measure fundamentally different things and cannot be treated as equivalent.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's market structure appears broken - every possible BRTI value triggers a Yes resolution. This is a critical design flaw. Polymarket's binary Up/Down structure is logically sound but uses Binance data, not BRTI. If you are trading both, understand that Kalshi may not resolve as intended and Polymarket will move independently based on Binance candle data. Request clarification from Kalshi before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) - 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT April 6, 2026. All 80 price brackets (56750 and below through 76249.99 and above) resolve to Yes. No No resolution condition exists. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is [any price range] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET April 6, 2026. Resolves Up if close price >= open price, Down otherwise. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Down.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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