TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5PM ET

Volume:
$190,583

$69,750 to 69,999.99

 - Kalshi

$69,750 to 69,999.99 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Apr 6, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$69,750 to 69,999.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$25,489
N/A
N/A
$19,304
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$108,960
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69,000 to 69,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,887
N/A
N/A
$3,678
Settled
No
kalshi

$70,000 to 70,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,539
N/A
N/A
$6,622
Settled
No
kalshi

$69,500 to 69,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,028
N/A
N/A
$4,360
Settled
No
kalshi

$56,749.99 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,582
N/A
N/A
$4,497
Settled
No
kalshi

$69,250 to 69,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,555
N/A
N/A
$2,890
Settled
No
kalshi

$71,250 to 71,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,767
N/A
N/A
$2,757
Settled
No
kalshi

$71,000 to 71,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,494
N/A
N/A
$2,014
Settled
No
kalshi

$67,500 to 67,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,373
N/A
N/A
$1,454
Settled
No
kalshi

$68,750 to 68,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,882
N/A
N/A
$1,731
Settled
No
kalshi

$68,500 to 68,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,518
N/A
N/A
$1,053
Settled
No
kalshi

$70,750 to 70,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,352
N/A
N/A
$1,288
Settled
No
kalshi

$76,250 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$883
N/A
N/A
$203
Settled
No
kalshi

$70,250 to 70,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$547
N/A
N/A
$391
Settled
No
kalshi

$67,750 to 67,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$442
N/A
N/A
$407
Settled
No
kalshi

$70,500 to 70,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$402
N/A
N/A
$385
Settled
No
kalshi

$68,000 to 68,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$366
N/A
N/A
$363
Settled
No
kalshi

$68,250 to 68,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$337
N/A
N/A
$328
Settled
No
kalshi

$67,000 to 67,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$304
N/A
N/A
$304
Settled
No
kalshi

$66,750 to 66,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$167
N/A
N/A
$167
Settled
No
kalshi

$67,250 to 67,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$152
N/A
N/A
$76
Settled
No
kalshi

$66,500 to 66,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$83
N/A
N/A
$83
Settled
No
kalshi

$66,000 to 66,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
No
kalshi

$66,250 to 66,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 81

Description

This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down on April 6, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) averaged over 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT, while Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close prices. Both markets resolve based on price direction at the specified timestamp, but they reference different data sources and measurement methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic contains a logical contradiction: all 80 conditions resolve to Yes across the entire price range (below 56750 to above 76249.99), leaving no outcome path for No resolution. Polymarket uses a separate, independent data source (Binance BTC/USDT) and measurement method (1-hour candle open/close comparison). The two markets measure fundamentally different things and cannot be treated as equivalent.Hero tip: Kalshi's market structure appears broken - every possible BRTI value triggers a Yes resolution. This is a critical design flaw. Polymarket's binary Up/Down structure is logically sound but uses Binance data, not BRTI. If you are trading both, understand that Kalshi may not resolve as intended and Polymarket will move independently based on Binance candle data. Request clarification from Kalshi before committing capital.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) - 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT April 6, 2026. All 80 price brackets (56750 and below through 76249.99 and above) resolve to Yes. No No resolution condition exists. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is [any price range] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET April 6, 2026. Resolves Up if close price >= open price, Down otherwise. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Down.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.