TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin price on September 23?
polymarket
opinion

Bitcoin price on September 23?

Volume:
$282,008

>84,000

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Closed: Sep 23, 6:23 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

>84,000

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$42,457
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

>84,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

82,000-84,000

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$102,154
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

82,000-84,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<66,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$64,380
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

<66,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80,000-82,000

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,852
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

80,000-82,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

78,000-80,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,857
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

78,000-80,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76,000-78,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,614
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

76,000-78,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

74,000-76,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,838
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

74,000-76,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

72,000-74,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,512
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

72,000-74,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

70,000-72,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,425
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

70,000-72,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

66,000-68,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$973
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

66,000-68,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

68,000-70,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$945
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

68,000-70,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market tracks whether the price of Bitcoin will be greater than $84,000 on September 23rd. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Opinion indicates a 100.0% chance of this outcome, with a 0.1% probability assigned to the price falling between $82,000 and $84,000. Resolution will be based on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at noon ET on that date. Traders should watch the price action leading up to September 23rd, 2026, as this date represents the end of the event window for determining Bitcoin’s price.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms utilize the same underlying resolution source (Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at 12:00 PM ET) and define identical price ranges for resolution.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the 'Close' price of the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle at 12:00 PM ET on September 23rd.
  • If the price falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, the higher range resolves as 'Yes'.
  • All markets resolve to 'No' if the price is not within the specified range.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, efforts will be made to find a reliable alternative source for BTC/USDT price data. If a suitable alternative cannot be found, the markets may be cancelled.
Timing: Resolution will occur as soon as the 12:00 PM ET Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closes on September 23rd.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final "Close" price of the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title falls within the price range specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, the September Bitcoin price market dashboard tracks predictions about the price of Bitcoin on September 23. This is a cross-platform view, aggregating data from both venues to provide a consensus perspective on potential price movements. Currently, total volume across both platforms is $282,008, with $199,551 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard allows you to compare how traders on each platform are pricing the probability of different outcomes for the September Bitcoin price, giving a comprehensive overview of market sentiment. This market offers a unique way to follow the wisdom of the crowd.

Prediction market odds reflect a weighted average of informed opinions, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than simple spot price expectations. This market, for example, incorporates the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to make correct predictions. While spot prices represent current market value, these markets represent probabilities of future value. Discrepancies can arise due to factors not fully priced into spot markets, such as regulatory news or unexpected macroeconomic events. Analyzing the difference between prediction market probabilities and implied spot price expectations can reveal valuable insights.