TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.3b
24H VOL:
$107,419,736
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,594,026,835
471,138
Markets across
35,775
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,926
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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80,000-82,000
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Opinion
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 15, 2026
Related News
Time left: 11h:28m:03s
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 15?
$
Description
This group of markets asks forecasters to predict the price of Bitcoin on October 15th, using Binance as the source of truth. Markets range from predicting if the price will be below a certain threshold to predicting if it will fall within specific price ranges, or above a certain threshold.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Opinion markets utilize the same Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at 12:00 ET on October 15th for resolution.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDTCore resolution logic:
- Resolution is based on the 'Close' price of the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 ET on October 15th.
- If the price falls exactly on a boundary between ranges, the higher range will resolve as true.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, PredictionHero will attempt to source data from a reliable archive or alternative exchange with high correlation to Binance, prioritizing data integrity. If no reliable data is available, the markets may be cancelled.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final "Close" price of the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title falls within the price range specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Frequently asked questions
Prices on Polymarket and Opinion may differ due to variations in user base, trading activity, and market dynamics. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different types of traders with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing opinions on the likely Bitcoin price. Additionally, the liquidity and volume on each platform can influence price discovery. For example, a large trade on Polymarket might shift the price there, while Opinion’s price remains relatively stable due to lower volume. These factors contribute to the observed price discrepancies in this market.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Bitcoin price on October 15 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be determined by a widely-recognized and publicly available source for Bitcoin pricing data. The resolution will reflect the prevailing price at a specific time on that date, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome for this market. Traders can review the historical price data after resolution to understand how the market’s predictions aligned with the actual result.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 15, 2026. Major macroeconomic announcements, such as interest rate decisions from central banks, could influence investor sentiment towards Bitcoin. Regulatory developments, including potential approvals or restrictions on Bitcoin ETFs, are also key catalysts. Unexpected news regarding the security of the Bitcoin network or significant adoption by institutional investors could also cause substantial price movements. Geopolitical events and broader market risk sentiment will also play a role, potentially driving traders to adjust their positions in this market.
