TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin price on June 29?
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin price on June 29?

Volume:
$268,860

58,000-60,000

 - Polymarket

58,000-60,000 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

58,000-60,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$35,247
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,000 to 60,249.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27,102
N/A
N/A
$8,519
Settled
Yes
polymarket

62,000-64,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,378
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60,000-62,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35,929
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$60,250 to 60,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34,744
N/A
N/A
$17,151
Settled
No
polymarket

<56,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,763
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

56,000-58,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,414
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$59,500 to 59,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,512
N/A
N/A
$9,379
Settled
No
kalshi

$59,750 to 59,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,163
N/A
N/A
$5,442
Settled
No
kalshi

$59,000 to 59,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,921
N/A
N/A
$6,412
Settled
No
polymarket

64,000-66,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,504
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$60,500 to 60,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,407
N/A
N/A
$4,367
Settled
No
polymarket

68,000-70,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,784
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$60,750 to 60,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,868
N/A
N/A
$2,340
Settled
No
polymarket

70,000-72,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,843
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$59,250 to 59,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,746
N/A
N/A
$2,223
Settled
No
kalshi

$58,750 to 58,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,340
N/A
N/A
$1,317
Settled
No
polymarket

66,000-68,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,149
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$61,000 to 61,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,013
N/A
N/A
$1,013
Settled
No
polymarket

>74,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$940
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

72,000-74,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$830
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$58,000 to 58,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$727
N/A
N/A
$494
Settled
No
kalshi

$62,000 to 62,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$461
N/A
N/A
$225
Settled
No
kalshi

$55,500 to 55,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$411
N/A
N/A
$411
Settled
No
kalshi

$50,249.99 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$310
N/A
N/A
$155
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 91

Description

This event group tracks Bitcoin's price on June 29, 2026, across two major prediction platforms using different price indices and observation times. Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT spot prices at noon ET, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) averaged over 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT. Both platforms partition the price range into granular brackets to allow traders to bet on specific price levels.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct price measurement methodologies and observation times create potential for non-aligned resolutions. Polymarket uses Binance spot close at noon ET; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks BRTI index average at 5 PM EDT.Hero tip: Treat these as separate bets on different price metrics at different times. Polymarket captures intraday noon pricing; Kalshi captures late-afternoon benchmark pricing. Bitcoin volatility between noon and 5 PM ET could cause divergent outcomes even if both platforms are resolving correctly according to their own rules.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at exactly 12:00 PM ET on June 29, 2026. Uses a single exchange spot price as the settlement value. Covers 12 binary brackets from <56k to >74k in 2k increments. Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the final Close price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon).'
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) simple average calculated over 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT on June 29, 2026. Uses a composite benchmark index rather than spot exchange price. Covers 80 granular price brackets spanning approximately 50,250 to 69,750+ in 250 increments. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is [range] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is below 50250 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 50250-50499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 50500-50749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 50750-50999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 51000-51249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 51250-51499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 51500-51749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 51750-51999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 52000-52249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 52250-52499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 52500-52749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 52750-52999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 53000-53249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 53250-53499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 53500-53749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 53750-53999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 54000-54249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 54250-54499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 54500-54749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 54750-54999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 55000-55249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 55250-55499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 55500-55749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 55750-55999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 56000-56249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 56250-56499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 56500-56749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 56750-56999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 57000-57249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 57250-57499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 57500-57749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 57750-57999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 58000-58249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 58250-58499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 58500-58749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 58750-58999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 59000-59249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 59250-59499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 59500-59749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 59750-59999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 60000-60249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 60250-60499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 60500-60749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 60750-60999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 61000-61249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 61250-61499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 61500-61749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 61750-61999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 62000-62249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 62250-62499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 62500-62749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 62750-62999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 63000-63249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 63250-63499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 63500-63749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 63750-63999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 64000-64249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 64250-64499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 64500-64749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 64750-64999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 65000-65249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 65250-65499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 65500-65749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 65750-65999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 66000-66249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 66250-66499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 66500-66749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 66750-66999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 67000-67249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 67250-67499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 67500-67749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 67750-67999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 68000-68249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 68250-68499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 68500-68749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 68750-68999.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 69000-69249.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 69250-69499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 69500-69749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 69749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds represent collective trader bets on future price ranges, not current spot prices. These odds embed forward-looking sentiment, volatility expectations, and tail-risk premiums that spot prices alone do not capture. Traders on this market are pricing in macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and technical levels they expect to hold through late June 2026. The gap between current spot and the implied midpoint of the leading outcome range often signals whether the market expects appreciation, depreciation, or consolidation over the forecast window.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates independent liquidity pools, fee structures, and user bases, so order flow and risk appetite vary. Polymarket may attract different trader demographics or leverage profiles than Kalshi, creating temporary arbitrage gaps. Settlement rule nuances—such as data source timing or rounding conventions—can also shift implied probabilities. These spreads typically narrow as the resolution date approaches and information converges, but intraday divergences offer opportunities for cross-platform traders to exploit mispricings.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation data, geopolitical developments, and Bitcoin-specific news such as regulatory rulings or large institutional flows. Technical breaks above or below key support and resistance levels often trigger sharp repricing. Macro risk-off events can push BTC lower, while risk-on sentiment and corporate adoption news tend to lift it. Volatility spikes around options expiry dates and futures contract rollovers may also shift implied probabilities as hedging demand fluctuates.