TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin price on June 16?
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin price on June 16?

Volume:
$3,353,091

$65,750 or above

 - Kalshi

$65,750 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$65,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$788,004
N/A
N/A
$190,705
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$421,184
N/A
N/A
$194,818
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$131,067
N/A
N/A
$64,005
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$101,222
N/A
N/A
$49,293
Settled
Yes
polymarket

64,000-66,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$79,873
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$54,801
N/A
N/A
$27,391
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$38,277
N/A
N/A
$20,826
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$23,677
N/A
N/A
$14,026
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,485
N/A
N/A
$11,344
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,773
N/A
N/A
$5,484
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,260
N/A
N/A
$4,622
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,214
N/A
N/A
$5,177
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,448
N/A
N/A
$1,448
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,102
N/A
N/A
$1,102
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$973
N/A
N/A
$939
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$640
N/A
N/A
$640
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$561
N/A
N/A
$561
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$561
N/A
N/A
$561
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
$468
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
$468
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$467
N/A
N/A
$467
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$374
N/A
N/A
$374
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$111
N/A
N/A
$111
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 91

Intro

This market tracks the price of Bitcoin on June 16, 2026 at 5 PM EDT across aggregated predictions from Polymarket and Kalshi. The consensus probability for a valid price resolution stands at 99.5%, based on Binance BTC/USDT closing prices as the resolution source. Watch for the June 16, 2026 market close at 5 PM EDT, as this is the specific time window when the Binance 1-minute candle will determine the final settlement price.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two independent measurement systems (CF Benchmarks BRTI vs Binance BTC/USDT) at two different times of day (5 PM EDT vs noon ET) create settlement value mismatch. While both measure Bitcoin price on June 16, 2026, the specific price observed will likely differ, causing potential cross-platform arbitrage or hedging complexity.Hero tip: Understand that Kalshi's 5 PM EDT BRTI snapshot and Polymarket's noon ET Binance close are independent events. Bitcoin could easily trade $1,000+ between noon and 5 PM. If you hold positions on both platforms, treat them as separate bets. Use historical correlation data between CF Benchmarks BRTI and Binance to estimate divergence risk.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 80 binary YES/NO markets, each tied to a specific BRTI threshold. Resolution occurs at 5 PM EDT on June 16, 2026, using CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index 60-second average. Thresholds range from $55,499.99 to $75,249.99 in $250 increments. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold]...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: 12 bracket-based markets using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at noon ET on June 16, 2026. Brackets: <$52k, $52-54k, $54-56k, $56-58k, $58-60k, $60-62k, $62-64k, $64-66k, $66-68k, $68-70k, >$70k. Ties resolve to higher bracket. Quote: 'This market will resolve according to the final Close price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon).'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) prices collected before 5 PM EDT on June 16, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with thresholds ranging from $55,500 to $70,250 in $250 increments. The official price is determined by averaging all 60 BRTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration. CF Benchmarks' BRTI is the authoritative data source for this market; prices from other sources like Google or Coinbase may differ and should not be used for resolution purposes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds translate trader conviction into probabilities that often diverge from spot-price momentum alone. On this market, the leading outcome carries meaningful odds, signaling where active traders believe Bitcoin will settle by the resolution date. Unlike passive price charts, prediction markets incorporate forward-looking sentiment, regulatory risk, and macroeconomic catalysts that traders actively price in. Comparing these odds to current spot levels and analyst forecasts reveals whether the market is pricing in upside, downside, or stability relative to today's valuation.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation data, geopolitical developments, and regulatory statements on cryptocurrency. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional risk assets means equity market shocks, bond yields, and dollar strength can trigger sharp repricing. On-chain metrics such as exchange inflows, whale transactions, and network activity also influence trader positioning. Institutional adoption news, corporate treasury moves, and macroeconomic recession signals are historically potent movers. Monitoring these signals in real time helps traders anticipate shifts in market odds before they fully materialize.