TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin price on June 12?
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin price on June 12?

Volume:
$5,470,702

$63,000 or above

 - Kalshi

$63,000 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$63,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$458,282
N/A
N/A
$196,162
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$272,035
N/A
N/A
$61,662
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$247,206
N/A
N/A
$58,168
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$240,587
N/A
N/A
$43,466
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$217,801
N/A
N/A
$48,631
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$130,244
N/A
N/A
$34,410
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$114,817
N/A
N/A
$29,726
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$103,981
N/A
N/A
$37,743
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$95,342
N/A
N/A
$61,844
Settled
Yes
polymarket

62,000-64,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$72,559
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$66,236
N/A
N/A
$21,879
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$63,877
N/A
N/A
$33,905
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$46,238
N/A
N/A
$13,866
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$40,583
N/A
N/A
$17,162
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$37,698
N/A
N/A
$17,178
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$36,670
N/A
N/A
$20,331
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$36,223
N/A
N/A
$20,279
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$30,456
N/A
N/A
$12,492
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,963
N/A
N/A
$19,631
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,142
N/A
N/A
$15,457
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$52,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,860
N/A
N/A
$9,162
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$50,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,261
N/A
N/A
$7,273
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$49,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,422
N/A
N/A
$5,333
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$51,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,803
N/A
N/A
$1,044
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,972
N/A
N/A
$3,322
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 61

Intro

This market tracks the price of Bitcoin on June 12, 2026, aggregating predictions from Polymarket and Kalshi. The consensus probability across both platforms stands at 99.0% for a price outcome occurring on that date. Resolution will be determined by Binance's BTC/USDT close price at noon ET on June 12, 2026, using the 1-minute candle data. Watch for any significant Bitcoin volatility or regulatory announcements in the weeks leading up to June 12, 2026, as these could influence final price positioning.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct measurement times (noon ET vs 5 PM EDT) and two distinct data sources (Binance spot vs CF Benchmarks BRTI index) create independent resolution pathways. Bitcoin price movements between noon and 5 PM could cause one platform to resolve Yes while the other resolves No for overlapping price ranges.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi and Polymarket as separate markets with independent outcomes. Kalshi's 5 PM EDT settlement uses a professional index benchmark; Polymarket's noon settlement uses retail exchange data. Intraday volatility on June 12 could easily create divergent resolutions. Hedge or size positions accordingly if you are exposed to both platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 50 binary markets, each resolving Yes if CF Benchmarks BRTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold. Thresholds span $49,499.99 to $73,999.99 in irregular $500 increments. All markets use identical methodology and timing. Key Quote: 'simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold]'
  • Polymarket: 12 binary markets covering price brackets at noon ET using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close. Brackets are $2,000 wide (e.g., $52k-$54k, $54k-$56k) plus extreme ranges (below $52k, above $70k). Tie-breaking rule: if price falls exactly between brackets, resolves to higher range. Key Quote: 'final Close price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon)'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Bitcoin price resolution uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) as the authoritative source. At the specified expiration time of 5 PM EDT on June 12, 2026, sixty individual RTI price points are collected over the preceding sixty seconds. The official settlement value is calculated as the simple average of these sixty prices, rounded to two decimal places. Each outcome threshold is set at $500 intervals starting from $49,500 and extending to $74,000. If no data is available from CF Benchmarks at the specified time, the most recently published data will be used instead. Price data from other sources like Google or Coinbase may serve as reference points but do not determine the official resolution.

Frequently asked questions

The Bitcoin price on June 12 dashboard aggregates prediction market data across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking real-time odds for where Bitcoin will trade on that date. You can monitor consensus probability shifts, trading volume across both platforms, and the leading outcome as traders update their positions. This cross-platform view reveals how different market structures and user bases price the same event, giving you a comprehensive snapshot of collective expectations for Bitcoin's value heading into mid-June 2026.

Prediction market odds reflect traders' forward-looking consensus on Bitcoin's June 12 price, often diverging from current spot prices due to time decay, volatility expectations, and macro sentiment. Markets like Polymarket and Kalshi embed expectations about regulatory announcements, macroeconomic shifts, and on-chain activity over the coming months. While spot price shows today's value, these odds reveal where informed traders believe Bitcoin will settle, incorporating tail risks and longer-term conviction that spot markets may underweight.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Kalshi may show different odds due to distinct user bases, liquidity pools, fee structures, and market design. Polymarket's AMM model can exhibit wider spreads during low-volume periods, while Kalshi's order-book structure may attract institutional traders with tighter pricing. Regional access restrictions, platform-specific incentives, and differences in how each market segments Bitcoin price ranges can also create temporary arbitrage opportunities, though active traders typically narrow gaps over time.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy shifts, inflation data releases, and geopolitical developments affecting risk sentiment. Regulatory announcements—particularly around spot Bitcoin ETFs or institutional custody—can drive sharp repricing. On-chain metrics like exchange inflows, whale accumulation, and mining difficulty adjustments signal trader conviction. Macro events such as banking stress, currency crises, or tech sector earnings may also influence Bitcoin's correlation with equities. Monitoring these signals helps traders anticipate directional moves before June 12.