TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin price on July 3?
polymarket

Bitcoin price on July 3?

Volume:
$217,768

60,000-62,000

 - Polymarket

60,000-62,000 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

60,000-62,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$48,444
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

62,000-64,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$58,992
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

64,000-66,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,056
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

58,000-60,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,192
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

56,000-58,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

54,000-56,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<52,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,959
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

66,000-68,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,261
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

52,000-54,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,579
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>70,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,575
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

68,000-70,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,104
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

The Bitcoin price prediction market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for this event. Traders buy and sell shares based on their conviction about Bitcoin's price on July 3, and the current market price reflects the collective forecast. The dashboard displays the leading outcome, trading activity, and liquidity available at different price points, giving participants a transparent view of how the market is pricing this specific date's Bitcoin valuation.

Prediction market odds often diverge from spot price expectations because they embed forward-looking sentiment, tail-risk premiums, and trader positioning. While spot prices reflect current market transactions, this market aggregates bets about a specific future date, capturing uncertainty and longer-term conviction. Comparing the implied price level from market odds to analyst forecasts or historical volatility can reveal whether traders are pricing in unusual moves or stability relative to consensus views.

This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by Bitcoin's price at that specific moment, checked against the threshold embedded in the market's binary structure. Once resolution data is finalized and verified, payouts are distributed to holders of the winning outcome share.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, regulatory developments affecting cryptocurrency, and shifts in institutional adoption sentiment. Geopolitical events, corporate earnings tied to crypto exposure, and technical breakouts or breakdowns in Bitcoin's price chart can also trigger rapid repricing. Unexpected volatility in traditional markets often correlates with crypto moves, making broader financial conditions a key signal to monitor through resolution.