TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin price on August 14?
opinion
kalshi
polymarket

Bitcoin price on August 14?

Volume:
$4,583,786

$62,500 or above

 - Kalshi

$62,500 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 14, 2026

Closed: Aug 14, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$62,500 or above

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$626,218
N/A
N/A
$241,388
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,000 or above

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$241,802
N/A
N/A
$95,541
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,500 or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$77,034
N/A
N/A
$45,989
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,000 or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$43,333
N/A
N/A
$27,905
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$35,680
N/A
N/A
$25,757
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$29,333
N/A
N/A
$24,003
Settled
Yes
polymarket

62,000-64,000

View
100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$28,110
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

62,000-64,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$52,000 or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,816
N/A
N/A
$17,810
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,936
N/A
N/A
$12,669
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,000 or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,409
N/A
N/A
$7,068
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,228
N/A
N/A
$9,646
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,268
N/A
N/A
$8,426
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,711
N/A
N/A
$1,711
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,569
N/A
N/A
$1,569
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55,500 or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,261
N/A
N/A
$1,261
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$52,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$840
N/A
N/A
$788
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$653
N/A
N/A
$652
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$561
N/A
N/A
$561
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$561
N/A
N/A
$561
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$549
N/A
N/A
$549
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$543
N/A
N/A
$543
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$531
N/A
N/A
$531
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$470
N/A
N/A
$470
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<56,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$762
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 72

Intro

This market tracks whether the price of Bitcoin will meet certain conditions on August 14, 2026. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome stands at 99.0%. Data is drawn from Opinion, Kalshi, and Polymarket, with resolution based on the consensus price from major cryptocurrency exchanges at defined settlement times. Watch the Bitcoin price movements on August 14, 2026, as this is the key date that will determine the market outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms resolve based on Bitcoin's price on August 14, 2026, with minor differences in timing and data sources that do not affect the core outcome.Primary resolution logic: Consensus price from major cryptocurrency exchanges at defined settlement times

Core resolution logic:

  • Markets resolve based on Bitcoin's price at a specific time on August 14, 2026
  • Polymarket uses Binance's BTC/USDT closing price at 12:00 PM ET
  • Kalshi uses the average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5:00 PM EDT
  • Opinion uses undefined source but implies a similar market-close price check

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Exact Threshold Crossings: If the price falls exactly on a threshold, Polymarket resolves to the higher range, while Kalshi uses strict threshold comparisons
  • Time Zone Differences: Polymarket uses ET (noon), while Kalshi uses EDT (5:00 PM), resulting in potentially different prices due to market movements
Timing: All markets resolve on August 14, 2026, at or near major exchange closing timesOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

All markets share a unified resolution methodology centered on the Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) published by CF Benchmarks. For each market, the outcome depends on whether the simple average of the sixty-second readings of the BRTI immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on August 14, 2026, exceeds a specified threshold. The exact threshold varies per market, incrementing in $500 or $1,000 steps from $52,000 up to $76,500. The resolution uses the average of 60 consecutive BRTI price samples taken during the final minute before 5 PM EDT on the expiration date, ensuring precision and consistency across all thresholds. All markets rely exclusively on CF Benchmarks' BRTI for price validation, disregarding other potential data sources such as exchange-specific feeds or aggregated consumer-facing services. This approach standardizes the evaluation process and eliminates discrepancies that might arise from using divergent pricing sources.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final "Close" price of the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title falls within the price range specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Bitcoin price market aggregates predictions from multiple venues, showing how traders across platforms view the likely price range. It displays current consensus odds, volume of $4,583,786, and 24-hour volume of $2,808,819, letting you see where the market stands as we approach the target date. This unified view helps you spot trends and compare expectations without needing to check each prediction platform individually.