TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 10, 6:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Bitcoin ETF flows on Wednesday, June 10, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
Bitcoin ETF Flows on June 10 is priced on Polymarket using an automated market maker model where traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect the ratio of liquidity and trading activity across outcome shares. As traders place orders, the price adjusts in real time. You can enter a position at any time before Jun 10, 2026, and your entry price depends on the cumulative volume already traded and the current probability implied by the market's liquidity pools.
The market resolves on Jun 10, 2026, after the close of trading on June 10. Resolution is determined by official Bitcoin ETF flow data reported by fund administrators and financial data providers. The outcome hinges on whether net flows into or out of spot Bitcoin ETFs exceed specified thresholds, or whether flows are positive or negative overall. Traders should monitor regulatory filings, fund announcements, and market news leading up to the resolution date to assess the likelihood of each outcome.
Major signals include Bitcoin price movements, macroeconomic data releases, Federal Reserve policy announcements, and cryptocurrency regulatory news. Institutional adoption announcements, corporate treasury decisions, and geopolitical events can drive large inflows or outflows. On-chain metrics and whale transaction activity may hint at institutional positioning. Market-wide volatility or risk-off sentiment could trigger redemptions, while bullish sentiment may spur inflows. Additionally, competing asset performance, traditional market correlations, and year-end or quarter-end fund rebalancing cycles can influence ETF flows on the specific date.