TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 30, 2:45 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Bitcoin ETF flows on Monday, July 27, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Bitcoin ETF flows on Monday, July 27, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
Compared to traditional spot price forecasts, this market reflects a more nuanced outlook by incorporating market microstructure and liquidity conditions into its pricing. While analysts might focus solely on Bitcoin's price direction, traders here weigh additional factors like ETF inflow magnitudes, regulatory announcements, and institutional participation. This often results in odds that diverge from spot predictions, especially when market sentiment shifts rapidly.
This market resolves around Jul 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution depends on authoritative financial data sources tracking ETF inflow and outflow figures for the specified period. Traders will see the market settle based on these verified numbers, reflecting the actual net flow recorded by regulators and asset managers.
Key signals include regulatory announcements from the SEC or other agencies, unexpected changes in institutional buying patterns, macroeconomic shifts affecting crypto demand, and news about ETF fund performance or redemption rates. Any data suggesting higher or lower investor participation can shift odds quickly. Traders will also watch for technical upgrades or market corrections that influence capital flows into Bitcoin ETFs.