TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 12, 2:50 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Bitcoin ETF flows on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Bitcoin ETF flows on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
Compared to traditional spot price forecasts, prediction market odds in this market reflect aggregated trader sentiment about the direction of Bitcoin ETF flows, which can diverge from short-term price momentum. While spot expectations may focus on broader market sentiment or macro news, this market zeroes in on flow data, often reacting faster to regulatory updates or institutional announcements.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced through a decentralized order book where traders submit bids and asks to set the current probability. The top outcome’s implied chance reflects the best available bid-ask spread, with liquidity depth shown via volume of $243. Traders can also use conditional tokens to hedge or speculate on flow outcomes.
This market resolves around Aug 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will depend on authoritative ETF flow data releases, typically from fund providers or regulatory filings, matched against the market’s defined thresholds for net inflows or outflows.