TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Science and Technology
Bitcoin above ___ on September 17?
opinion
polymarket

Will Bitcoin be above the price on September 17?

Volume:
$1,723,083

74,000

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 17, 2026

Closed: Sep 17, 12:13 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

74,000

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$224,213
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

74,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

70,000

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$197,198
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

70,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

72,000

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$196,682
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

72,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

68,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$161,446
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

68,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76,000

View
100%
56%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$132,420
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

76,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

78,000

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$281,662
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

78,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80,000

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$272,724
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

80,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

82,000

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$136,340
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

82,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

84,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$56,750
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

84,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

88,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,325
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

88,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

86,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,323
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Intro

This market tracks whether the price of Bitcoin will be above $74,000 on September 17th. Currently, the aggregated probability across Opinion and Polymarket indicates a 100.0% chance of Bitcoin exceeding that level, as determined by the closing price on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles. Resolution will be based on the 12:00 PM ET Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close on September 17th, which marks the end of the betting period for these markets. Keep a close watch on trading volume and price action leading up to September 17th to see if this consensus holds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms utilize the same Binance BTC/USDT closing price at 12:00 PM ET on September 17th to determine if the price exceeds the specified threshold.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the closing price of the 1-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle at 12:00 PM ET on September 17th.
  • A market resolves to 'Yes' if the closing price is strictly greater than the threshold specified in the market question.
  • A market resolves to 'No' if the closing price is less than or equal to the threshold.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Binance Outage: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, PredictionHero will attempt to find a reliable alternative data source with high correlation to Binance's BTC/USDT price. If a suitable source cannot be found, the markets may be cancelled.
  • Candle Formation: If a 1-minute candle does not fully form at 12:00 PM ET, the final closing price of the closest available candle will be used.
Timing: Resolution will occur as soon as the 12:00 PM ET Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closes on September 17th.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, as reflected in this market, offer a unique perspective compared to traditional spot price expectations. While spot prices are determined by immediate buying and selling pressure, prediction markets aggregate informed opinions about future events. This allows the market to incorporate a wider range of factors, including anticipated news, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic trends, into its pricing. The implied probability derived from this market can therefore serve as a valuable signal, potentially diverging from current spot prices based on forward-looking insights.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major news regarding Bitcoin adoption by institutions, regulatory announcements from key governments, and unexpected macroeconomic data releases are all potential catalysts. Significant technological developments within the Bitcoin network, such as upgrades or security breaches, could also influence the price. Furthermore, broader market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies and risk assets can play a role. Any substantial shift in these factors could lead to increased trading volume and price fluctuations in this market.