TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.3b
24H VOL:
$107,419,736
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,594,026,835
471,138
Markets across
35,775
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,926
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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Will Bitcoin be above the price on October 20?
74,000
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Opinion
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 20, 2026
Related News
Time left: 05d:11h:28m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 20?
$
Description
This group of markets asks whether the price of Bitcoin will exceed specified thresholds on October 20th. All markets resolve based on the closing price of the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance at a specific time. The questions vary only by the price threshold.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Opinion markets utilize the same resolution source (Binance BTC/USDT) and timing (12:00 ET on October 20th) to determine if Bitcoin's price exceeds a given threshold.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution depends on the 'Close' price of the BTC/USDT 1-minute candle on Binance at 12:00 ET on October 20th.
- The market resolves to 'Yes' if the closing price is strictly greater than the specified threshold; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the specified resolution time, resolution will likely be delayed until Binance data is restored. If data is permanently unavailable, the market may be canceled.
- Candle Formation: The 1-minute candle must fully form at 12:00 ET on October 20th for a valid resolution. Any issues with candle formation may lead to a delay or cancellation.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those reflected in this market, offer a unique perspective on future price movements compared to traditional spot price expectations. Spot prices reflect current market value, while this market represents a weighted average of informed predictions about a future date. Discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and implied volatility from options markets can present potential arbitrage opportunities. The collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket and Opinion often incorporates factors not immediately apparent in spot prices, such as upcoming regulatory decisions or macroeconomic events. Therefore, this market can serve as a valuable complement to traditional financial analysis.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Bitcoin price at a specified time on October 20, as reported by a widely recognized and trusted financial data source. Traders should monitor external sources for the official price data as the resolution date approaches. The outcome of this market will reflect the collective prediction of participants regarding the Bitcoin price on that date.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before it resolves around Oct 20, 2026. Major macroeconomic announcements, such as inflation data or interest rate decisions from central banks, often influence Bitcoin's price. Regulatory developments, including potential approvals of Bitcoin ETFs or changes in cryptocurrency regulations, could also trigger substantial price movements. Unexpected news regarding the adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors or large corporations could also shift market sentiment. Finally, significant technical events, like major network upgrades or security breaches, could also affect the outcome of this market.
