TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

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Bitcoin above ___ on October 19?
opinion
polymarket

Will Bitcoin be above the price on October 19?

Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$60,557
Volume 24h:
$42,125
234%
Liquidity:
$406,675
22%
Open interest:
$55,575N/A

72,000

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 19, 2026

Time left: 04d:11h:28m

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 19?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99.3¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 0.7% | APY: 89% 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

72,000

Trade
99%
Yes 99.3¢No 1.4¢
0.7¢
$40,995
$6,427
1,028%
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
opinion

72,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
99%
Yes 99.3¢No 1.4¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 0.7¢
polymarket

74,000

Trade
97%
2%
Yes 97.7¢No 4.1¢
1.8¢
$40,288
$9,224
70%
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
opinion

74,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
96.8%
Yes 97.7¢No 4.1¢
Avg: 1.8¢Max: 1.8¢
polymarket

76,000

Trade
94%
5%
Yes 94.8¢No 7.2¢
2¢
$43,801
$10,347
91%
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
opinion

76,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
93.8%
Yes 94.8¢No 7.2¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

78,000

Trade
85%
12%
Yes 87¢No 17¢
4¢
$47,044
$13,872
1,035%
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
opinion

78,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
85%
Yes 87¢No 17¢
Avg: 4¢Max: 4¢
polymarket

80,000

Trade
66%
25%
Yes 67¢No 35¢
2¢
$46,262
$3,185
825%
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
opinion

80,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
66%
Yes 67¢No 35¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

82,000

Trade
40%
35%
Yes 42¢No 62¢
4¢
$46,291
$2,385
81%
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
opinion

82,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
40%
Yes 42¢No 62¢
Avg: 4¢Max: 4¢
polymarket

84,000

Trade
18%
29%
Yes 19¢No 83¢
2¢
$22,872
$725
588%
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
opinion

84,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
18%
Yes 19¢No 83¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

86,000

Trade
6%
19%
Yes 7¢No 95¢
2¢
$22,951
$860
148%
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
opinion

86,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
6%
Yes 7¢No 95¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

88,000

Trade
2%
7%
Yes 3.2¢No 98.9¢
2.1¢
$22,470
$303
117%
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
opinion

88,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.2%
Yes 3.2¢No 98.9¢
Avg: 2.1¢Max: 2.1¢
polymarket

92,000

Trade
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.2¢
0.7¢
$36,913
$9,346
3,015%
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
opinion

92,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.2%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.2¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 0.7¢
polymarket

90,000

Trade
1%
3%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.4¢
0.9¢
$36,790
$3,884
16%
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
opinion

90,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 0.9¢
Total markets: 22

Description

This group of markets asks whether the price of Bitcoin will exceed specific thresholds on October 19th. All markets are based on the closing price of the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance at noon Eastern Time. The markets are a series of 'price-at-event' questions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Opinion markets use the same source (Binance BTC/USDT) and resolution criteria (12:00 ET close price exceeding a threshold).Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution depends on the 'Close' price of the BTC/USDT pair on Binance.
  • The 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 ET on October 19th determines the outcome.
  • If the 'Close' price is strictly greater than the market's threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes'.
  • Otherwise, the market resolves to 'No'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, PredictionHero will attempt to use a reliable third-party data provider offering identical data, prioritizing data mirroring Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candles. If no such data is available, the market may be cancelled.
  • Candle Formation: If a 1-minute candle does not fully form at 12:00 ET, the final 'Close' price of the most recent completed candle before 12:00 ET will be used.
Timing: Resolution will occur as soon as the 1-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle closes at or after 12:00 ET on October 19th. Settlement will occur within 24 hours of the candle close.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on whether the Bitcoin price will be above a certain threshold on October 19. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $59,771, with $41,339 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a comprehensive look at predictions regarding the Bitcoin price on October 19, combining insights from different forecasting communities. Polymarket currently favors a price above $72,000 at 100%, while Opinion does not have a comparable market. This provides a unique perspective on market sentiment.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective on future events. These odds can be compared to traditional spot price expectations derived from futures contracts or analyst forecasts. However, prediction markets offer a unique advantage: they incentivize accurate predictions through financial rewards. This can lead to more informed and potentially more accurate forecasts than those based solely on opinion or speculation. The current pricing on Polymarket and Opinion suggests a strong belief in a higher Bitcoin price, differing from some conventional analyses.

Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Opinion may differ due to variations in user base, market design, and trading volume. Polymarket tends to attract a more sophisticated and active trading community, potentially leading to quicker price adjustments and a more efficient market. Opinion, with its different user demographics and market structure, may exhibit different trading patterns and price discovery. Furthermore, the specific market structures – such as fees, liquidity, and allowed bet sizes – can influence price discrepancies. These factors contribute to the observed differences in how each platform assesses the probability of the Bitcoin price exceeding a certain level.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Bitcoin price at a specific time on October 19, as determined by a widely-recognized and publicly available data source. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of whether the Bitcoin price was above the specified threshold, providing clarity and finality to the market’s outcome.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major macroeconomic announcements, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions, often influence Bitcoin’s price. Regulatory developments, including potential government restrictions or approvals of Bitcoin ETFs, could also create substantial price movements. Unexpected news regarding the adoption of Bitcoin by institutions or corporations, or significant technical developments within the Bitcoin network, could also shift the odds. Geopolitical events and broader market sentiment could also play a role in influencing trading activity in this market.