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$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

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Bitcoin above ___ on October 18?
opinion
polymarket

Will Bitcoin be above the price on October 18?

Oct 11, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$82,439
Volume 24h:
$22,244
43%
Liquidity:
$280,401
22%
Open interest:
$72,918N/A

74,000

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 18, 2026

Time left: 03d:11h:28m

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 18?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99.2¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 0.8% | APY: 164% 3 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

74,000

Trade
98%
Yes 99.2¢No 2.3¢
1.5¢
$25,222
$9,225
65%
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
opinion

74,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
98.4%
Yes 99.2¢No 2.3¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 1.5¢
polymarket

76,000

Trade
96%
3%
Yes 96.7¢No 5¢
1.7¢
$27,097
$9,854
14%
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
opinion

76,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
95.9%
Yes 96.7¢No 5¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 1.7¢
polymarket

78,000

Trade
88%
10%
Yes 88.7¢No 12.8¢
1.5¢
$29,378
$12,276
67%
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
opinion

78,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
87.9%
Yes 88.7¢No 12.8¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 1.5¢
polymarket

80,000

Trade
69%
26%
Yes 70¢No 32¢
2¢
$30,296
$7,551
230%
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
opinion

80,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
69%
Yes 70¢No 32¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

82,000

Trade
40%
37%
Yes 41¢No 62¢
3¢
$33,265
$5,253
63%
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
opinion

82,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
39.5%
Yes 41¢No 62¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

84,000

Trade
16%
31%
Yes 17¢No 85¢
2¢
$27,357
$1,914
717%
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
opinion

84,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
16%
Yes 17¢No 85¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

86,000

Trade
4%
19%
Yes 5.4¢No 97.3¢
2.7¢
$26,318
$1,475
242%
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
opinion

86,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.1%
Yes 5.4¢No 97.3¢
Avg: 2.7¢Max: 2.7¢
polymarket

88,000

Trade
1%
6%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.1¢
0.7¢
$26,433
$2,403
163%
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
opinion

88,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.3%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.1¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 0.7¢
polymarket

90,000

Trade
1%
2%
Yes 1.4¢No 99.1¢
0.5¢
$23,913
$23,436
1%
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
opinion

90,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.2%
Yes 1.4¢No 99.1¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 0.5¢
polymarket

92,000

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.3¢
0.1¢
$25,580
$9,047
9%
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
opinion

92,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.8%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.3¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

94,000

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.7¢
0.3¢
$5,542
$5
0%
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
opinion

94,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 0.3¢Max: 0.3¢
Total markets: 22

Description

This group of markets asks whether the price of Bitcoin will exceed a specified threshold on October 18th. All markets rely on the price of Bitcoin as measured by the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. The thresholds vary across different markets within the group.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Opinion markets rely on the same source (Binance BTC/USDT) and the same resolution time (12:00 ET on October 18th) to determine if the price exceeds a specified threshold.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the 'Close' price of the 1-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle at 12:00 ET on October 18th.
  • The market resolves to 'Yes' if the 'Close' price is *strictly* greater than the specified threshold.
  • The market resolves to 'No' if the 'Close' price is less than or equal to the specified threshold.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, PredictionHero will attempt to source data from a reliable alternative exchange with high liquidity for BTC/USDT, prioritizing Coinbase Pro. If no reliable alternative is available, the market may be cancelled.
  • Candle Formation: If a 1-minute candle does not fully form at 12:00 ET on October 18th, the final 'Close' price of the most recent completed candle before 12:00 ET will be used.
Timing: The markets will resolve based on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle that closes at 12:00 ET on October 18th. Resolution will occur as soon as possible after the candle closes, typically within 24 hours.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, this market tracks the consensus view on whether the Bitcoin price will be above a certain threshold on October 18. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $82,409, with $22,214 traded in the last 24 hours. This dashboard provides a combined look at predictions for the Bitcoin price on October 18, allowing you to see how traders are pricing in the probability of various outcomes across different venues. Polymarket currently favors a price above $74,000 with 100 percent chance, while Opinion has not yet established a leading outcome.

Prediction market odds offer a unique perspective on future price movements, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd. This market reflects traders’ collective belief about the probability of the Bitcoin price exceeding a specific threshold on October 18. Comparing these probabilities to those implied by traditional financial instruments, like futures contracts, can reveal discrepancies and potentially identify undervalued or overvalued assets. The current volume of $82,409 suggests considerable interest in this particular forecast, making it a valuable signal for those following the cryptocurrency market.

Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices for this market may differ between Polymarket and Opinion due to variations in user base, trading activity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket often attracts a different demographic of traders compared to Opinion, which can lead to differing opinions and price discovery. Furthermore, the liquidity and volume on each platform can influence the price, as larger trading volumes typically result in tighter spreads. These factors contribute to the possibility of observing different probabilities for the Bitcoin price on October 18 across the two platforms, even though they address the same underlying question.

This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Bitcoin price at a specific time on October 18, as determined by a widely recognized and publicly available data source. The final price will be assessed against the market’s threshold to determine whether the outcome is a success or failure. Traders should monitor news and data sources leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential price movements.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 18, 2026. Major news events related to Bitcoin, such as regulatory announcements, technological advancements, or macroeconomic shifts, could trigger substantial price swings. Unexpected developments in the broader cryptocurrency market, including hacks or security breaches, could also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, large-scale buying or selling activity by institutional investors or prominent figures could move the price and, consequently, the odds in this market. Monitoring these signals is crucial for understanding potential shifts in prediction probabilities.