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$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

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2,643,541,936

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$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

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2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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VS.

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Bitcoin above ___ on October 17?
opinion
polymarket

Will Bitcoin be above the price on October 17?

Oct 10, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Oct 17, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$106,287
Volume 24h:
$58,790
286%
Liquidity:
$463,177
18%
Open interest:
$78,136N/A

74,000

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 17, 2026

Time left: 02d:11h:28m

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 17?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 98.4¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% High Projected APY: 1,778% 2 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

74,000

Trade
98%
Yes 98.4¢No 1.7¢
0.1¢
$41,236
$11,789
156%
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
opinion

74,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
98.4%
Yes 98.4¢No 1.7¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

76,000

Trade
96%
4%
Yes 96¢No 4.9¢
0.9¢
$40,021
$24,318
117%
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
opinion

76,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
95.6%
Yes 96¢No 4.9¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 0.9¢
polymarket

78,000

Trade
90%
9%
Yes 90.3¢No 10.2¢
0.5¢
$41,434
$17,133
94%
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
opinion

78,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
90.1%
Yes 90.3¢No 10.2¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 0.5¢
polymarket

80,000

Trade
71%
27%
Yes 71¢No 30¢
1¢
$43,784
$9,748
228%
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
opinion

80,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
70.5%
Yes 71¢No 30¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

82,000

Trade
38%
41%
Yes 39¢No 63¢
2¢
$46,539
$6,535
223%
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
opinion

82,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
38%
Yes 39¢No 63¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

84,000

Trade
13%
34%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
1¢
$39,769
$4,245
120%
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
opinion

84,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
12.5%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

86,000

Trade
4%
15%
Yes 4.2¢No 95.9¢
0.1¢
$41,436
$9,058
265%
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
opinion

86,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.2%
Yes 4.2¢No 95.9¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

88,000

Trade
1%
5%
Yes 1.1¢No 99¢
0.1¢
$40,763
$2,656
185%
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
opinion

88,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

94,000

Trade
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.5¢
0.2¢
$40,957
$1,232
1,157%
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
opinion

94,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.6%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 0.2¢Max: 0.2¢
polymarket

92,000

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.5¢
0.1¢
$47,828
$12,516
26%
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
opinion

92,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

90,000

Trade
0%
2%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
0.1¢
$39,409
$7,058
115%
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
opinion

90,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 11h 28m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
Total markets: 22

Description

This group of markets asks whether the price of Bitcoin will exceed a specified threshold on October 17th. All markets resolve based on the closing price of the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance at noon Eastern Time on that date. The questions vary only by the price target.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms utilize the same source (Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles) and identical resolution logic based on the noon ET close price on October 17th.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the 'Close' price of the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance.
  • The 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 ET on October 17th determines the outcome.
  • If the 'Close' price is above the target price, the market resolves to 'Yes'.
  • If the 'Close' price is at or below the target price, the market resolves to 'No'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the specified resolution time, PredictionHero will attempt to source data from a reliable archive or alternative exchange with high correlation to Binance. If no reliable data is available, the market may be cancelled.
  • Candle Formation: If a 1-minute candle does not fully form at 12:00 ET, the most recent completed candle prior to 12:00 ET will be used for resolution.
Timing: Resolution will occur as soon as possible after the 12:00 ET Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closes on October 17th.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on whether the Bitcoin price will be above a certain level on October 17. Currently, Polymarket shows a strong expectation of a price above $74,000, with a chance percentage of 99, while Opinion has not yet established significant volume on this question. The aggregate volume across both platforms is $104,465, and the 24-hour volume is $56,725. This allows traders to see how predictions about the Bitcoin price on October 17 are evolving across different forecasting venues, providing a more comprehensive outlook.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective on future events. They can be compared to implied probabilities derived from options markets or survey-based expectations of spot prices. However, prediction markets offer a unique advantage: traders put real capital at risk, incentivizing more accurate predictions. Discrepancies between prediction market prices and other forecasts can present trading opportunities, as the market adjusts to new information and changing sentiment about the Bitcoin price on October 17.

Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. The prices on Polymarket and Opinion may differ due to variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and the specific mechanisms each platform employs. Polymarket currently favors an outcome where the price of Bitcoin is above $74,000 at 98.4%, while Opinion leans toward a different outcome. These differences can arise from varying levels of information access, risk appetite among traders, or even subtle differences in how each platform presents the market. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform – $104,465 overall – influences price discovery, and discrepancies in volume can lead to diverging predictions.

This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Bitcoin as recorded by a widely-recognized and trusted exchange at a specific time on October 17. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of whether the Bitcoin price exceeded the threshold defined by the leading outcome on each platform. Traders can review the final price and resolution details after the settlement date.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major macroeconomic announcements, such as inflation data or interest rate decisions, often influence Bitcoin's price. Regulatory developments, including potential approvals of Bitcoin ETFs or changes in cryptocurrency regulations, could also cause substantial price movements. Unexpected news regarding the adoption of Bitcoin by institutions or corporations could also shift market sentiment. Finally, significant technical events, like network upgrades or security breaches, could also influence the price and, consequently, the odds in this market.