TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.3b
24H VOL:
$107,419,736
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,594,026,835
471,138
Markets across
35,775
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,926
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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Will Bitcoin be above the price on October 16?
72,000
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Opinion
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 16, 2026
Related News
Time left: 01d:11h:28m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 16?
$
Description
This group of markets asks whether the price of Bitcoin will exceed a specified threshold on October 16th. All markets resolve based on the closing price of the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance at noon ET. The questions vary only in the price threshold being tested.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Opinion markets use the same resolution source (Binance BTC/USDT) and time (12:00 ET on October 16th) to determine if Bitcoin's price exceeds a given threshold.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution is based on the 'Close' price of the 1-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle at 12:00 ET on October 16th.
- If the 'Close' price is strictly greater than the specified threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes'.
- Otherwise, the market resolves to 'No'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, PredictionHero will attempt to find a reliable alternative source for BTC/USDT price data. If a suitable alternative cannot be found, the market may be cancelled.
- Candle Formation: If a 1-minute candle does not form precisely at 12:00 ET, the candle that *closes* closest to 12:00 ET will be used.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a forward-looking assessment of probabilities that differs from current spot prices. Spot prices represent the immediate cost of Bitcoin, while this market aggregates beliefs about its value on Oct 16, 2026. Discrepancies can arise from factors not fully captured in the spot price, such as anticipated news events, regulatory changes, or shifts in investor sentiment. Analyzing these differences can provide valuable insights into the market’s expectations beyond simple price discovery, and potentially identify opportunities for informed trading.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of Bitcoin on October 16 will be sourced from established financial data providers to determine whether the outcome meets the market’s conditions. Resolution will be based on a widely recognized and publicly available Bitcoin price index, ensuring transparency and accuracy in determining the result of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major news regarding Bitcoin regulation, adoption by institutional investors, or technological developments could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected macroeconomic events, such as shifts in interest rates or inflation data, could also affect the price of Bitcoin and, consequently, this market. Furthermore, significant security breaches or hacks involving Bitcoin exchanges could create downward pressure, while positive developments in the cryptocurrency space could drive prices higher. Monitoring these factors is crucial for understanding potential shifts in the market.
