TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin above ___ on July 3?
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin above ___ on July 3?

Volume:
$9,557,676

$62,500 or above

 - Kalshi

$62,500 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$62,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,366,701
N/A
N/A
$263,522
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$995,675
N/A
N/A
$249,193
Settled
Yes
polymarket

62,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$389,146
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$61,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$484,956
N/A
N/A
$110,162
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$425,035
N/A
N/A
$63,046
Settled
Yes
polymarket

60,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$289,253
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$399,557
N/A
N/A
$95,773
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$367,323
N/A
N/A
$55,192
Settled
Yes
polymarket

56,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$339,660
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$79,386
N/A
N/A
$21,155
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$318,582
N/A
N/A
$72,842
Settled
Yes
polymarket

52,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$267,385
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$52,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,649
N/A
N/A
$3,087
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$232,772
N/A
N/A
$33,344
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$232,079
N/A
N/A
$53,993
Settled
Yes
polymarket

50,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$230,781
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$50,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,726
N/A
N/A
$2,191
Settled
Yes
polymarket

58,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$225,192
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$187,757
N/A
N/A
$31,137
Settled
Yes
polymarket

54,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$220,334
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,350
N/A
N/A
$11,000
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$90,899
N/A
N/A
$16,012
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$87,765
N/A
N/A
$10,396
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$85,467
N/A
N/A
$18,672
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$78,408
N/A
N/A
$19,208
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 61

Intro

This market tracks whether Bitcoin's price will exceed $47,500 on July 3, 2026 at 5 PM EDT. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus probability for Bitcoin trading above this threshold stands at 99.0%. Resolution will be determined by CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index, averaged over sixty seconds before the 5 PM EDT settlement time on July 3, 2026. Watch the final hour of trading on July 3, 2026 as the measurement window approaches, since the sixty-second average immediately preceding 5 PM EDT will determine the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket employ different data sources (CF Benchmarks BRTI vs Binance BTC/USDT), different measurement times (5 PM EDT vs noon ET), and different aggregation methods (60-second average vs single 1-minute candle close). These methodological differences create material risk of conflicting resolutions at identical price thresholds.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets move in lockstep. A Bitcoin price of $65,000 at noon ET could easily differ from the BRTI average at 5 PM EDT. Monitor both sources independently. Kalshi's 5 PM settlement occurs 5 hours after Polymarket's noon settlement, allowing significant price movement and index divergence between the two resolution points.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) simple average of 60 seconds immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 3, 2026. All 50 markets use identical methodology with thresholds ranging from 47499.99 to 71999.99. Key Quote: 'simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold]'
  • Polymarket: Resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on July 3, 2026. 12 markets with thresholds ranging from 50000 to 70000 in 2000 increments. Key Quote: 'Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final Close price higher than the price specified'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) measured before 5 PM EDT on July 3, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring if the average price exceeds the threshold specified for that outcome. At the final minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected and averaged to determine the official value. CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative price source, not alternative sources like Google or Coinbase.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect trader beliefs about future price action, not current spot rates. If this market shows high implied probability, traders expect Bitcoin to remain or climb above the threshold by settlement. Conversely, lower odds suggest skepticism about that level holding. These probabilities often diverge from spot-price technical analysis because they embed longer-dated uncertainty, funding costs, and tail-risk hedging. Comparing market odds to your own price forecast helps identify mispricings or consensus shifts.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, liquidity pools, and user bases, which can create pricing gaps on identical events. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Factors include order-flow timing, fee structures, and how each platform's community weights macro catalysts. Arbitrage traders often exploit these spreads, but temporary divergence persists due to fragmented liquidity. Monitoring both venues helps you spot when one platform is pricing in information the other has not yet reflected.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, and regulatory developments affecting cryptocurrency adoption. Geopolitical events, corporate Bitcoin holdings announcements, and shifts in institutional demand can also drive sharp repricing. On-chain metrics like exchange inflows and whale accumulation patterns often precede price moves. Monitoring these signals helps you anticipate when this market may shift, allowing you to adjust positions ahead of consensus.