TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin above ___ on July 2?
polymarket

Bitcoin above ___ on July 2?

Volume:
$2,876,362

60,000

 - Polymarket

60,000 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

60,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$395,807
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

56,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$386,702
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

58,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$332,202
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

54,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$184,143
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

50,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$180,920
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

52,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$172,196
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

64,000

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$525,938
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

62,000

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$428,647
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

66,000

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$131,682
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

70,000

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$76,400
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

68,000

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$61,726
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether Bitcoin will trade above $60,000 on Polymarket, with resolution determined by the Binance BTC/USDT closing price at noon ET on the specified date. The leading outcome currently stands at 100.0% probability. Settlement will be based on the 1-minute candle close price from Binance's BTC/USDT pair at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, ensuring precise price verification from a single, widely-used exchange. Watch the Binance BTC/USDT price action as it approaches July 2, 2026, the resolution date when the noon ET close will determine the final outcome.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Bitcoin price level market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for this binary outcome. The interface displays current implied probabilities, 24-hour trading volume, and order-book depth to help traders monitor sentiment around whether Bitcoin will trade above a specific threshold by the resolution date. This dashboard aggregates all activity on the venue, giving you a live snapshot of how the market is pricing the event and how conviction has shifted over time.

Prediction market odds reflect traders' collective belief about where Bitcoin will settle on the target date, often diverging from current spot prices due to time value, volatility expectations, and funding costs. While spot markets price the asset right now, this market embeds forward-looking sentiment—including macro conditions, regulatory developments, and technical levels—into a single probability. Comparing the implied odds here to analyst forecasts and on-chain metrics can reveal whether the market is pricing in optimism or caution relative to consensus views.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker (AMM) mechanism, where buying YES or NO shares moves the price based on available liquidity. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The cost of shares reflects the probability the market assigns to Bitcoin reaching the specified level. As new information emerges or trading volume shifts, the price adjusts in real time, ensuring the odds stay responsive to evolving expectations about the outcome.

This market resolves around Jul 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result hinges on whether Bitcoin's price crosses the specified threshold at the designated time. Resolution is determined by reference to established price feeds and market data, ensuring an objective and transparent settlement that reflects the actual market conditions on the resolution date.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, Bitcoin network developments, and regulatory news from key jurisdictions. Geopolitical events, corporate adoption announcements, and shifts in institutional capital flows can also drive sharp repricing. Technical levels and options expiry dates may trigger volatility spikes, while changes in on-chain metrics—such as exchange inflows or whale accumulation—often signal conviction shifts among sophisticated traders and move the odds meaningfully.