TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin above ___ on July 1?
kalshi
polymarket

Bitcoin above ___ on July 1?

Volume:
$2,540,725

$60,000 to 60,249.99

 - Kalshi

$60,000 to 60,249.99 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$60,000 to 60,249.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$35,241
N/A
N/A
$14,388
Settled
Yes
polymarket

60,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$436,772
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

54,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$327,115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

58,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$263,219
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

56,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$251,335
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

50,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$153,110
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

52,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$150,841
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

62,000

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$633,509
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

64,000

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$114,496
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

66,000

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$38,857
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

70,000

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$25,920
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$59,750 to 59,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,514
N/A
N/A
$9,343
Settled
No
polymarket

68,000

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$20,395
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$58,500 to 58,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,560
N/A
N/A
$15,336
Settled
No
kalshi

$59,500 to 59,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,216
N/A
N/A
$4,819
Settled
No
kalshi

$60,250 to 60,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,455
N/A
N/A
$5,992
Settled
No
kalshi

$59,000 to 59,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,690
N/A
N/A
$5,007
Settled
No
kalshi

$58,750 to 58,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,509
N/A
N/A
$5,027
Settled
No
kalshi

$60,750 to 60,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,408
N/A
N/A
$3,402
Settled
No
kalshi

$50,000 to 50,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,985
N/A
N/A
$2,645
Settled
No
kalshi

$58,000 to 58,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,507
N/A
N/A
$2,270
Settled
No
kalshi

$59,250 to 59,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,765
N/A
N/A
$1,162
Settled
No
kalshi

$61,000 to 61,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,295
N/A
N/A
$1,283
Settled
No
kalshi

$49,750 to 49,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,116
N/A
N/A
$1,116
Settled
No
kalshi

$60,500 to 60,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$916
N/A
N/A
$755
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 91

Intro

This market tracks whether Bitcoin's price will exceed $60,000 at noon ET on July 1, 2026. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus shows 100.0% probability for a yes outcome. Resolution will be determined by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026. Watch the final trading activity on Binance in the hour leading up to the noon ET timestamp, as last-minute price movement could influence settlement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Settlement Value Mismatch: Polymarket resolves on Binance BTC/USDT close at 12:00 PM ET, while Kalshi resolves on CF Benchmarks BRTI average at 5:00 PM EDT. Different data sources, methodologies, and timestamps create independent resolution paths for the same underlying asset.Hero tip: Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi will resolve identically. Bitcoin's price at 12:00 PM ET (Polymarket) may differ significantly from 5:00 PM EDT (Kalshi). Polymarket uses a single exchange (Binance); Kalshi uses a third-party index (CF Benchmarks BRTI). Arbitrage or hedging across platforms requires accounting for both the 5-hour time gap and the source methodology difference. If you hold positions on both platforms, monitor both timestamps and sources independently.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves Yes if Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 PM ET on July 1 exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., $58,000, $54,000, $56,000, etc.). Single exchange, single timestamp, single candle. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final Close price higher than the price specified in the title.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves Yes if CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second simple average before 5:00 PM EDT on July 1 falls within one of 80 predefined price bands (e.g., $49,250-$49,499.99, $52,000-$52,249.99, etc.) or above $68,749.99. Third-party index, different timestamp (5 PM EDT vs 12 PM ET), granular price band structure. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is between [range] at 5 PM EDT on Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 1, 2026. Each outcome represents a distinct price range, and the market resolves to Yes for the outcome matching the 60-second average (e.g., between 49250-49499.99 for the second outcome, between 49500-49749.99 for the third, etc.). The official price is calculated as the mean of all 60 RTI prices collected during the final minute, ensuring consistent institutional-grade pricing independent of retail sources.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds represent collective trader sentiment rather than spot prices themselves. On this market, the implied probability reflects what traders believe will occur, not the current BTC price. Spot markets price continuous trading; prediction markets price a binary or range outcome at a future date. The gap between current spot price and the threshold embedded in this market, combined with volatility expectations, shapes the odds you see. Traders factor in potential price moves, funding rates, and macroeconomic catalysts when positioning.

Macroeconomic announcements—Federal Reserve policy shifts, inflation data, or geopolitical developments—typically drive Bitcoin volatility and reshape trader expectations. Regulatory news, major exchange hacks, or shifts in institutional adoption can trigger sharp repricing. On-chain metrics like exchange inflows and whale accumulation patterns also influence sentiment. Technical levels and options expiry dates may create momentum. Broader equity market moves and USD strength often correlate with BTC directional bias, so monitoring traditional markets alongside crypto-specific catalysts helps anticipate odds swings.