TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Tour
All
Science and Technology
Best Chinese AI Company this month
kalshi

Best Chinese AI Company this month

Volume:
$41,732

Alibaba

 - Kalshi

Alibaba - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Closed: Jul 31, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Alibaba

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,470
N/A
N/A
$4,704
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Moonshot

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,179
N/A
N/A
$3,176
Settled
No
kalshi

Tencent

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,303
N/A
N/A
$3,573
Settled
No
kalshi

ByteDance

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,829
N/A
N/A
$3,833
Settled
No
kalshi

Baidu

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,709
N/A
N/A
$3,728
Settled
No
kalshi

DeepSeek

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,296
N/A
N/A
$1,850
Settled
No
kalshi

MiniMax

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,418
N/A
N/A
$2,418
Settled
No
kalshi

Xiaomi

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,210
N/A
N/A
$2,085
Settled
No
kalshi

Z.ai

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,318
N/A
N/A
$1,316
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event determines which Chinese AI company's language model performs best on the Arena AI Text Score benchmark (with style control removed) as of July 31, 2026. The ranking will be assessed at 10:00am ET on that date, with only companies headquartered in mainland China eligible to qualify.

Kalshi

On July 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, the highest-ranked Chinese AI company model on the Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) benchmark will be identified. Qualifying companies must have their global or primary operational headquarters located in mainland China. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the corresponding company achieves the highest rank on that date. In the event of tied rankings, the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology will be applied; if no such methodology exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them. When multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, the associated contracts will each resolve to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down.

Frequently asked questions

The Chinese AI company race dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and price movements for the leading contender in the Chinese AI company race, along with 24-hour volume of $7,666. It shows how traders on Kalshi are positioning themselves ahead of the resolution date, reflecting the latest sentiment toward which firm might claim dominance this month.

Currently, this market’s implied probability—based on trader activity—aligns closely with many analyst forecasts, though there are subtle differences in confidence levels. Analysts often emphasize long-term fundamentals, while traders react more quickly to news, earnings reports, and government policy updates. Monitoring both this market and expert commentary can reveal where consensus is building or diverging as Jul 31, 2026 approaches.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous trading, where participants submit bids and asks that determine the current probability. The top outcome’s chance reflects the collective judgment of active traders, adjusted for liquidity and recent trading volume. This dynamic pricing mechanism updates instantly to reflect new information and shifts in market sentiment.

This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The winner will be the Chinese AI company most frequently cited as the industry leader for the month, based on widely recognized metrics such as funding rounds, product launches, and media coverage.

Key signals include major product announcements, strategic partnerships, regulatory approvals, or significant funding rounds from any contender in the Chinese AI company race. Negative events—such as leadership changes, security breaches, or policy setbacks—could also shift probabilities. Traders will watch these developments closely, as each can reshape perceptions of which company is poised to lead before Jul 31, 2026.