TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Best AI this week
kalshi

Best AI this week

Volume:
$191,806

Claude

 - Kalshi

Claude - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 10, 2026

Closed: Aug 10, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Claude

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50,226
N/A
N/A
$42,997
Settled
Yes
kalshi

MUSE

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$53,663
N/A
N/A
$53,639
Settled
No
kalshi

ChatGPT

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$46,402
N/A
N/A
$46,401
Settled
No
kalshi

Amazon Nova

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,474
N/A
N/A
$14,474
Settled
No
kalshi

Qwen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,445
N/A
N/A
$14,445
Settled
No
kalshi

Gemini

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,286
N/A
N/A
$6,285
Settled
No
kalshi

Grok

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,944
N/A
N/A
$3,944
Settled
No
kalshi

Kimi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,588
N/A
N/A
$1,588
Settled
No
kalshi

Dola

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$779
N/A
N/A
$779
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event evaluates which company develops the highest-ranked large language model by August 10, 2026. The outcome depends on leaderboard rankings, score comparisons, user votes, and release dates to break ties among competing models from different tech firms.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if its designated company has the top-ranked LLM on August 10, 2026. If models tie under Rank (UB), the model with the highest Arena Score wins. If still tied, the model with the most votes wins. If still tied, the earlier-released model wins. When checking the source, the 'Remove Style Control' toggle must be used. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with any mentioned entities, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume for the weekly best AI market. It shows how traders value different AI solutions over the week, with updates reflecting market sentiment and trading activity. The interface displays current top outcome probabilities and volume of $191,806 to help users gauge interest and liquidity. This view lets participants monitor trends and make informed decisions as the week progresses toward resolution.

This market resolves around Aug 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner is the AI most widely recognized as the week’s breakthrough, based on media coverage, industry acclaim, and measurable impact metrics.

Several signals could shift odds in this market before Aug 10, 2026. Major product releases, significant research publications, or leadership changes at top AI firms might boost a specific outcome’s probability. Regulatory news, partnerships, or high-impact benchmark tests could also reshape trader sentiment. Additionally, widespread media coverage of an AI breakthrough or failure often drives short-term volatility. Any event that alters perceptions of which AI solution is most innovative, effective, or widely adopted has the potential to move this market substantially as the resolution date approaches.