TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Science and Technology
Best AI model on September 28?
polymarket

Best AI model on September 28?

Volume:
$6,663

Other

 - Polymarket

Other - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 28, 2:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Other

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,552
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

claude-fable-5.1-max

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,226
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

claude-opus-5-high

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,324
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

claude-opus-5-max

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$325
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

claude-opus-4-6-high

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$236
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the AI model performance market tracks the current odds for each potential leading AI model, along with the 24-hour trading volume. You can also view the price history of the market, allowing you to see how predictions have shifted over time. Currently, the volume is $1,361, and the total volume traded to date is $6,663. This information provides a real-time snapshot of where traders are placing their bets regarding which AI will be considered the best by Sep 28, 2026.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability for a specific AI model to lead. However, it’s important to note that analyst forecasts regarding AI capabilities can vary considerably. While some analysts are optimistic about certain models, others express caution. This market provides a unique perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to make accurate predictions. Comparing these odds to external forecasts can reveal potential discrepancies and offer a more nuanced understanding of the expected outcome.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination of which AI model is 'best' will be based on publicly available benchmarks and evaluations released by reputable sources in the AI research community. These evaluations will likely consider factors such as performance on standardized tests, efficiency, and capabilities across various tasks. The market will settle based on the consensus view of these established metrics.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding advancements in AI model capabilities, such as the release of new versions or breakthroughs in performance, would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected results from standardized AI benchmarks or the emergence of a new, competitive AI model could also be catalysts. Furthermore, significant media coverage or expert opinions expressing strong views on the leading contenders could influence trader behavior and move this market before Sep 28, 2026.