TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Best AI model on October 5?
polymarket

Best AI model on October 5?

Volume:
$13,691

Other

 - Polymarket

Other - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 2:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Other

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,428
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

claude-opus-5-max

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,998
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

claude-fable-5.1-max

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,779
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

claude-opus-4-6-high

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,866
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

claude-opus-5-high

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,620
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the AI model performance market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how traders are pricing the likelihood of different AI models being considered 'best' as of October 5. The 24-hour volume indicates how much trading activity has occurred recently, providing insight into current market interest. Currently, the total volume for this market is $13,691, with $138 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows you to monitor shifts in sentiment and potential catalysts influencing the market.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinions. Often, this market reflects a broader range of information and perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially incorporating factors analysts may overlook. If analysts are consistently more bullish or bearish than traders in this market, it could signal disagreement about key assumptions or data interpretation. It's important to remember that both approaches have limitations, and this market provides a unique data point for evaluating the potential outcome of which AI model will perform best.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The market’s price movements are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and the overall demand for shares in each possible outcome. This creates a dynamic pricing system that aims to accurately predict the event’s outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination of which AI model is considered 'best' will be based on publicly available benchmarks and evaluations released around that time. The market will settle to 100% for the outcome deemed most accurate and performant based on these established metrics. Traders should monitor news and reports leading up to the resolution date for potential catalysts and updates on the leading AI models.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 5, 2026. Major announcements regarding advancements in AI model capabilities, benchmark results from independent evaluations, or unexpected developments from key players in the AI field could all impact trading activity. Positive or negative press coverage, influential analyst reports, and even significant shifts in public perception could also influence the market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential price movements and making informed trading decisions in this market.