TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$185,665,189

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,833,875,329

407,365

Markets across

40,470

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,365

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Best AI model on October 12?
polymarket

Best AI model on October 12?

Volume:
$13,232

Other

 - Polymarket

Other - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 2:03 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Other

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,641
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

claude-opus-5.5-high

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,595
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

claude-fable-5.1-max

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,995
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-fable-5.1-max” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5.5-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-fable-5.1-max” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5.5-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the AI model performance market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how the implied probability of different AI models winning shifts over time, providing insight into where traders are placing their bets. The dashboard also displays the total volume traded in this market, currently at $13,232, and the 24-hour volume, which is $355. This information helps you understand market sentiment and activity surrounding the leading AI contenders.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective when compared to traditional analyst forecasts for AI model performance. While analysts often provide subjective rankings and predictions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates surprises or where analysts may be over- or under-estimating certain models’ capabilities. It’s valuable to consider both sources when forming your own assessment of the likely outcome.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of different outcomes. The price of each share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current trading volume indicates the level of interest and conviction surrounding each potential winner in the AI model performance market.

This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the leading AI model is verified against credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on widely accepted benchmarks and evaluations of AI model performance as determined by industry experts and publications. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of which AI model demonstrates the highest capabilities at the time of resolution. The market will then settle based on which model is deemed the best according to these established standards.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 13, 2026. Major announcements regarding breakthroughs in AI technology, the release of new model benchmarks, or unexpected performance results from leading AI labs could all influence trading activity. Public demonstrations showcasing the capabilities of different models, as well as shifts in expert opinions or media coverage, could also drive price changes. Any news that alters perceptions of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the competing AI models has the potential to impact this market.