TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Best AI model on November 9?
polymarket

Best AI model on November 9?

Oct 26, 2026, 6:44 PM EST - Nov 9, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$11,260
Volume 24h:
$51
115%
Liquidity:
$2,210
31%
Open interest:
$2,567N/A

Other

 - Polymarket

Other - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 9, 2026

Time left: 06d:23h:37m

Will any other model be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?

97%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 98¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 97% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% | APY: 187% Low liquidity 6 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Other

Trade
97%
1%
Yes 98¢No 4.7¢
2.7¢
$299
$3,904
0.39%
2,852%
N/A
6d 23h 37m
Active
polymarket

claude-fable-5.1-max

Trade
2%
Yes 3.6¢No 99.5¢
3.1¢
$584
$691
0%
292%
N/A
6d 23h 37m
Active
polymarket

claude-opus-5.5-high

Trade
2%
Yes 2.6¢No 99¢
1.6¢
$522
$1,926
2%
834%
N/A
6d 23h 37m
Active
polymarket

gemini-4-argon-high

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$806
$4,739
0%
517%
N/A
6d 23h 37m
Active
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5.5-high” would be ranked ahead of “gemini-4-argon-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5.5-high” would be ranked ahead of “gemini-4-argon-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the AI model performance market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how the implied probability of different AI models winning shifts over time, providing insight into where traders are placing their bets. The 24-hour volume indicates how much activity is happening in this market, and the price history shows the evolution of expectations. Currently, the volume is $125 and total volume is $11,260.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market can aggregate information from a wider range of sources than traditional analyst reports, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. While analysts may focus on specific technical details, the market reflects a broader assessment of factors influencing the outcome. It’s important to remember that both approaches have limitations, and discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and information access.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The market’s depth and liquidity are determined by the number of participants and the volume of trading activity, which currently stands at $11,260.

This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the leading AI model is verified against credible public reporting. The determination will be based on widely accepted benchmarks and evaluations of AI model performance, as assessed by independent experts and published results. This ensures a transparent and objective assessment of which AI model demonstrates superior capabilities at the time of resolution. Traders should monitor relevant news and announcements leading up to Nov 10, 2026.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 10, 2026. Major announcements regarding breakthroughs in AI technology, the release of new model benchmarks, or significant performance evaluations by independent research groups could all impact trading activity. Unexpected developments in the competitive landscape, such as a leading company unveiling a new AI model, could also shift probabilities. Furthermore, shifts in public perception or expert opinions regarding the capabilities of different AI models could influence trader behavior and market prices.