TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Best AI model on July 4?
polymarket

Best AI model on July 4?

Volume:
$44,777

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

 - Polymarket

claude-opus-4-6-thinking - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 4, 7:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1.6¢
N/A
$15,605
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

claude-fable-5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,604
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,389
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

claude-opus-4-7-thinking

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,924
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

claude-opus-4-6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,255
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the best AI model race dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for which artificial intelligence model will be ranked as the top performer by July 4, 2026. The interface displays current market prices, historical price movements, and trading volume to help participants monitor sentiment and liquidity around leading contenders. This market captures trader conviction about the trajectory of AI development and competitive positioning among major models as the deadline approaches.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because traders incorporate real-time information, financial incentives, and crowd wisdom into pricing. While analysts may rely on published benchmarks and historical performance data, this market aggregates the collective judgment of participants who have money at stake. Comparing the two reveals whether the market is pricing in developments that mainstream forecasters have not yet fully reflected, offering a complementary signal for tracking AI leadership expectations.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker that adjusts prices based on order flow and liquidity. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each potential outcome has a price between 0 and 100 cents, representing the implied probability that outcome will occur. As traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different AI models, the prices shift to reflect changing expectations about which model will emerge as the best by the resolution date.

This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning outcome will be determined by identifying which AI model is recognized as the best performer according to established benchmarks, industry consensus, or authoritative evaluations available at that time. Traders should monitor developments in model releases, benchmark results, and expert assessments leading up to the resolution window.

Major AI model releases, benchmark test results, and published performance comparisons will likely drive significant price movement in this market. Announcements from leading AI labs, new capabilities demonstrations, or shifts in industry consensus about model rankings could reshape trader expectations. Additionally, regulatory developments, real-world deployment successes, or unexpected technical breakthroughs could alter perceptions of which model deserves the top ranking by July 4, 2026.