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Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
polymarket
kalshi

Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?

Volume:
$77,064

10-13%

 - Polymarket

10-13% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 12:58 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

10-13%

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14,164
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 11%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$580
N/A
N/A
$240
4w 9h
Yes
kalshi

At least 7%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$271
N/A
N/A
$271
4w 9h
Yes
kalshi

At least 9%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$224
N/A
N/A
$224
4w 9h
Yes
polymarket

<10%

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$42,689
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

13-16%

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,500
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16%+

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,609
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 13%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
$21
4w 9h
No
kalshi

At least 15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
4w 9h
No
kalshi

At least 5%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 9h
Yes
Total markets: 10

Description

This group forecasts the vote share the Social Democratic Party (SPD) will receive in the 2026 Berlin state election. The outcome is determined by the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) attributed to the SPD by the official Election Office of Berlin. Markets cover various ranges of potential vote share percentages.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses range-based resolution, while Kalshi uses point-based (greater than or equal to) resolution, leading to differing settlement outcomes for values near range boundaries.Hero tip: Carefully consider the range boundaries in Polymarket and the threshold values in Kalshi when assessing probabilities. A value right at the edge of a Polymarket range may have a high probability of resolving 'Yes' on that market, but a lower probability on a corresponding Kalshi market.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve based on whether the SPD vote share falls within specified ranges. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range bracket. "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket."
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve to 'Yes' if the SPD vote share is at or above a specified percentage. "If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by SPD in the 2026 Berlin state election is 7% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by SPD in the 2026 Berlin state election, calculated as (second votes for SPD ÷ total valid second votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Each market has a different threshold (5%, 7%, 9%, 11%, 13%, or 15%) that SPD must meet or exceed for a 'Yes' resolution. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. Certified or official results are the primary source; unofficial results or media declarations are only used if explicitly permitted by Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions. If the election is cancelled, suspended, postponed before conclusion, or if no results are available by expiration, all markets resolve 'No'. Recounts that change the certified percentage before expiration will use the most recent certified figure. The resolution depends solely on whether SPD's vote share falls within the specified range for each market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those preferences. This can lead to more accurate forecasts, as traders have a financial incentive to be correct. Polling data may be subject to biases, such as social desirability bias, which are less prevalent in prediction markets. However, it’s important to note that both sources have their limitations, and a combination of data points can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the likely Berlin election outcome.