Berlin State Election: More Votes to Linke or AfD? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Berlin State Election: More Votes to Linke or AfD?
Start: 2026-08-20T18:17:20.000Z
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Description

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks the real-time odds and price history for the Berlin vote share race, showing how traders are betting on which party will gain more votes between Linke and AfD. You can also see the current 24-hour volume of $2,150 to gauge market activity. The chart updates live, giving you a clear view of market sentiment as the election approaches.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote counts will determine which party — Linke or AfD — received more votes in the Berlin state election. The market will settle based on official results, ensuring an accurate and transparent conclusion.

Several events could shift this market before it resolves. Key catalysts include final polling updates, major campaign announcements, debates, and any shifts in public sentiment due to economic or social developments. Media coverage and endorsements can also influence trader sentiment. As the election nears, any significant changes in voter turnout expectations or controversy surrounding the candidates may cause rapid moves in this market.

Berlin State Election: More Votes to Linke or AfD?

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