Berlin State Election: More Votes to Grüne or SPD? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Berlin State Election: More Votes to Grüne or SPD?
Start: 2026-08-20T18:18:15.000Z
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Description

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both Grüne and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both Grüne and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the odds in this market often reflect a synthesis of recent polling averages, expert forecasts, and trader sentiment. While polls provide a snapshot of public opinion, prediction market prices incorporate additional variables such as campaign dynamics and historical trends. Comparisons between this market and polling averages can highlight areas where traders are more or less optimistic about the chances of each party performing strongly on election day.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final tally of votes will decide which party receives more support in the Berlin state election, and the market will settle accordingly based on official announcements and widely accepted news sources.

Key events such as debates, major policy announcements, scandals, or shifts in voter turnout could move this market. Economic data releases, leadership changes, or emerging campaign strategies may also influence trader sentiment. As the election approaches, polling updates and media coverage will be closely watched, potentially causing rapid price adjustments on Polymarket in response to any significant developments.

Berlin State Election: More Votes to Grüne or SPD?

Why a Favorite Wall Street Tax Strategy Is Facing Scrutiny

Fed’s Barr Says Further Policy Adjustments Likely Needed to Tame Inflation

First female prime minister named in Morocco after winning elections

Exchange Income, AirBoss of America on Canadian Defense

What did Andy Burnham promise at Labour conference?

Five takeaways from Andy Burnham's Labour conference speech

Mexico’s Booming Pension Funds Hit Record in Government Debt

Democrats killed the Clarity Act

Exclusive: Full list of attendees at White House AI lunch

Estonia blames Russia for arson at defence company supplying Ukraine

Markets

Details