Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or SPD? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or SPD?
Start: 2026-08-20T18:17:19.000Z
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Description

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks the latest odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $161 for the Berlin election party race. It shows how traders are positioning around which party will receive more votes between CDU and SPD in the upcoming election, offering a real-time view of market sentiment and activity.

This market often reflects polling averages but can diverge based on trader sentiment and recent developments. If polls show a tight race, expect volatility in this market. Traders may price in factors beyond raw poll numbers, such as campaign momentum or voter turnout trends, leading to differences between market odds and public surveys.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote tallies will determine whether CDU or SPD received more votes, and the market will settle accordingly based on official data.

Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or SPD?

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