Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD?
Start: 2026-08-20T18:16:53.000Z
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Description

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Berlin election CDU vs AfD market shows real-time odds and price movements on Polymarket, along with 24-hour volume of $5,968. It tracks how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of either party receiving more votes in the upcoming Berlin state election. This gives you a live view of market sentiment and trading activity for this specific political outcome, updated constantly as new bets are placed.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final tally of votes for each party will determine which side wins, and the market will settle based on official and widely accepted sources. Timing depends on when final, official results are announced post-election, ensuring an accurate and transparent resolution.

Key events such as recent opinion polls, debates, economic announcements, or scandals involving major candidates can shift this market. Changes in voter turnout expectations, campaign performance, or regional voting trends may also influence trader sentiment. As the election approaches, any significant polling updates or media coverage highlighting shifting support are likely to cause price swings, reflecting updated expectations about which party might secure more votes.

Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD?

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