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Berlin State Election: Linke Vote Share?
polymarket
kalshi

Berlin State Election: Linke Vote Share?

Volume:
$98,458

23%+

 - Polymarket

23%+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 10:49 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

23%+

View
100%
80%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$35,390
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 22%

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$353
N/A
N/A
$350
3w 4d 23h
Yes
kalshi

At least 20%

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$147
N/A
N/A
$147
3w 4d 23h
Yes
kalshi

At least 24%

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$80
N/A
N/A
$54
3w 4d 23h
Yes
polymarket

17-20%

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,290
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20-23%

View
0%
55%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,146
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<17%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,683
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 26%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$368
N/A
N/A
$363
3w 4d 23h
No
kalshi

At least 16%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 4d 23h
Yes
kalshi

At least 18%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 4d 23h
Yes
Total markets: 10

Description

This group forecasts the vote share that the Linke (Left Party) will receive in the 2026 Berlin state election, measured by the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme). The markets cover various ranges of potential vote share percentages, allowing for predictions about the party's performance.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi defines markets based on lower bounds of vote share, while Polymarket uses ranges and upper bounds, leading to differing resolution outcomes for similar vote percentages.Hero tip: Consider the implications of the differing lower/upper bound definitions when evaluating market prices. A vote share of 20% will resolve 'Yes' on Kalshi, but may resolve differently on Polymarket depending on the specific market.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve based on specific ranges (e.g., 17%-20%) with a tie-breaking rule favoring the higher range. "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket."
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve if Linke receives at least a specified percentage of the vote (e.g., 20%). "If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by Die Linke in the 2026 Berlin state election is 20% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Linke in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) Die Linke receives in the 2026 Berlin state election, compared against multiple threshold levels ranging from 16% to 26%. For each market, a 'Yes' outcome occurs if the party's vote share falls within or exceeds the specified threshold. The vote share is calculated by dividing the number of valid second votes received by Die Linke by the total number of valid second votes cast, multiplied by 100 and rounded to two decimal places. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. Certified or official results are used unless modified by recount outcomes before expiration. If the election is cancelled, suspended, postponed, or no results are available by expiration, the market resolves 'No'. Unofficial results or media declarations are only considered under specific provisions related to fully-conducted elections or accelerated resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the predicted vote share for Die Linke in the upcoming Berlin state election. Currently, there's strong consensus around a high probability of Die Linke securing at least 23% of the vote, with combined volume across both platforms exceeding $98,458. This reflects a collective assessment of various factors influencing the election. The dashboard aggregates data from both venues to provide a comprehensive view of the market's expectations for the Berlin election outcome, offering traders a consolidated perspective on this political event.

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of current voter intentions, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information and potential influencing factors. Polling data is susceptible to biases and inaccuracies, whereas the wisdom of the crowd in a prediction market can sometimes offer a more accurate forecast. Currently, the implied probability from this market is slightly higher than most recent polling averages, suggesting traders anticipate a stronger performance for Die Linke than currently projected by public opinion surveys.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major political endorsements, unexpected scandals involving key candidates, or shifts in public opinion revealed by late-stage polling could all cause price fluctuations. Additionally, any news related to voter turnout or potential changes to the electoral process could influence trader behavior. A significant policy announcement from Die Linke or a major gaffe by a competing party could also move the market. Traders will be closely monitoring these developments and adjusting their positions accordingly until the market resolves after the election.