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Berlin State Election: Grüne Vote Share?
polymarket
kalshi

Berlin State Election: Grüne Vote Share?

Volume:
$80,539

14-17%

 - Polymarket

14-17% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 10:12 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

14-17%

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$29,088
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 14%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$701
N/A
N/A
$227
3w 4d 23h
Yes
kalshi

At least 10%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
3w 4d 23h
Yes
kalshi

At least 12%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
$76
3w 4d 23h
Yes
polymarket

<14%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,688
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17-20%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,891
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,665
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 20%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
3w 4d 23h
No
kalshi

At least 18%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$708
N/A
N/A
$316
3w 4d 23h
No
kalshi

At least 16%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$618
N/A
N/A
$603
3w 4d 23h
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This group forecasts the vote share that the Green Party (Grüne) will receive in the 2026 Berlin state election. Resolution will be based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the party, as reported by the Election Office of Berlin.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms offer different sets of ranges for the Grüne vote share, creating SKU risk and differing probabilities.Hero tip: Consider hedging positions across platforms to mitigate the risk associated with differing range definitions.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket offers markets for specific ranges (e.g., 14%-17%) and a market for 'less than 14%'. Resolution resolves to the higher bracket if the result falls exactly on a boundary.
  • Kalshi: Kalshi offers markets for 'at least X%' (e.g., at least 14%), resolving 'Yes' if the vote share is within the range of X% to 100%.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by Grüne in the 2026 Berlin state election, compared against thresholds from 10% to 20%. The percentage is calculated by dividing the party’s valid second votes by the total number of valid second votes cast, multiplying by 100, and rounding to two decimal places. Only certified or official results are used unless specific provisions allow unofficial results. If the election is cancelled, suspended, postponed, or no results are available by expiration, the market resolves as No. Any recount altering the certified percentage before expiration will use the most recent certified figure. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator in all calculations.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture a snapshot in time and can be influenced by methodology and respondent bias. This market, however, represents continuously updated beliefs based on real money at stake. While both aim to forecast the Berlin election outcome, the financial incentive in this market can lead to more accurate predictions, especially as the election nears and new information becomes available. Discrepancies between polls and this market can signal areas where informed traders see opportunities.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and risk tolerance. Trading fees, market-specific rules, and liquidity also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, the way each platform presents the market – the specific outcomes offered – can influence trading behavior. For example, differing outcome ranges or the inclusion of ‘yes/no’ options versus percentage ranges can lead to different price signals for the Berlin election outcome.