Berlin State Election: Grüne Over/Under 17%? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Berlin State Election: Grüne Over/Under 17%?
Start: 2026-08-20T18:20:23.000Z
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Description

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Berlin Grüne vote share market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $627. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of the Grüne party exceeding or falling short of 17 percent in the Berlin state election. The interface updates continuously, reflecting market sentiment and trading activity as the election approaches.

Compared to current polling averages, this market often reflects a slightly different outlook. Prediction markets incorporate betting behavior, news reactions, and trader sentiment, which can shift the implied probability away from traditional polls. If polls show the Grüne near 17 percent, this market might price a higher or lower chance depending on recent events and trader confidence. The gap between market odds and polls can signal where traders see value or risk.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote share for the Grüne will be compared against the 17 percent threshold to determine whether the over or under contract settles. No additional data or interpretation is needed beyond the official election tally.

Berlin State Election: Grüne Over/Under 17%?

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